Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 439 game sample- PTS
- 67.4
- SOG
- 209.8
- G
- 37.7
- A
- 29.7
- PPP
- 27.3
- HIT
- 86.6
- BLK
- 41.2
- PIM
- 51.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 439 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 439 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 439 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.82
- G
- 0.46
- A
- 0.36
- SOG
- 2.57
- PPP
- 0.33
- HIT
- 1.05
- BLK
- 0.50
- PIM
- 0.63
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 42 | 24 | 66 | 0.80 | 206 | 17:50 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 27 | 26 | 53 | 0.65 | 174 | 18:00 |
| 2023-24 | 79 | 40 | 41 | 81 | 1.03 | 262 | 18:14 |
| 2022-23 | 81 | 34 | 50 | 84 | 1.04 | 240 | 19:01 |
| 2021-22 | 81 | 42 | 64 | 106 | 1.31 | 241 | 18:29 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1.20 | 15 | 20:05 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.67 | 19 | 19:10 |
| 2021-22 | 23 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 0.83 | 68 | 18:55 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | vs ANA | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16:49 |
| Apr 13 | vs SJS | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22:50 |
| Apr 11 | vs MIN | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 21:33 |
| Apr 9 | @ UTA | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:22 |
| Apr 7 | @ ANA | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:03 |
| Apr 6 | @ LAK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:38 |
| Apr 4 | @ SJS | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 16:14 |
| Apr 2 | @ LAK | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 20:40 |
| Mar 29 | @ TBL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17:17 |
| Mar 28 | vs MTL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:35 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 31.5 | 42 | plus 10.5 goals above expected | 82 | 306 |
| 2024-25 | 22.1 | 27 | plus 4.9 goals above expected | 76 | 258 |
| 2023-24 | 35.2 | 40 | plus 4.8 goals above expected | 78 | 370 |
| 2022-23 | 34.3 | 34 | minus 0.3 goals above expected | 78 | 343 |
| 2021-22 | 29.9 | 42 | plus 12.1 goals above expected | 80 | 323 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 28 goals, 12 assists, 40 points | 14 goals, 12 assists, 26 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 13 goals, 19 assists, 32 points | 14 goals, 7 assists, 21 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 21 goals, 21 assists, 42 points | 19 goals, 20 assists, 39 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 20 goals, 29 assists, 49 points | 14 goals, 21 assists, 35 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 27 goals, 44 assists, 71 points | 15 goals, 20 assists, 35 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
306 attempts · 42 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.