Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 384 game sample- PTS
- 71.2
- SOG
- 191.8
- G
- 27.2
- A
- 44.0
- PPP
- 13.9
- HIT
- 118.4
- BLK
- 40.7
- PIM
- 73.2
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 384 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 384 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 384 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.87
- G
- 0.33
- A
- 0.54
- SOG
- 2.34
- PPP
- 0.17
- HIT
- 1.44
- BLK
- 0.49
- PIM
- 0.89
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 77 | 27 | 41 | 68 | 0.88 | 168 | 19:05 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 24 | 52 | 76 | 0.93 | 188 | 20:36 |
| 2023-24 | 76 | 33 | 35 | 68 | 0.89 | 244 | 19:50 |
| 2022-23 | 60 | 31 | 30 | 61 | 1.02 | 191 | 20:07 |
| 2021-22 | 79 | 16 | 36 | 52 | 0.66 | 220 | 17:37 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0.50 | 13 | 18:18 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9 | vs CARPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16:33 |
| May 7 | vs CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 16:17 |
| May 4 | @ CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 23:58 |
| May 2 | @ CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19:48 |
| Apr 29 | vs PITPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:35 |
| Apr 27 | @ PITPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 19:32 |
| Apr 25 | vs PITPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:21 |
| Apr 22 | vs PITPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 16:28 |
| Apr 20 | @ PITPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 15:05 |
| Apr 18 | @ PITPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 24.1 | 27 | plus 2.9 goals above expected | 74 | 257 |
| 2024-25 | 22.4 | 24 | plus 1.6 goals above expected | 81 | 296 |
| 2023-24 | 27.3 | 32 | plus 4.7 goals above expected | 76 | 366 |
| 2022-23 | 24.6 | 31 | plus 6.4 goals above expected | 58 | 272 |
| 2021-22 | 24.0 | 16 | minus 8.0 goals above expected | 77 | 297 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 23 goals, 28 assists, 51 points | 2 goals, 12 assists, 14 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
| 2024-25 | 15 goals, 41 assists, 56 points | 8 goals, 9 assists, 17 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points |
| 2023-24 | 22 goals, 29 assists, 51 points | 4 goals, 5 assists, 9 points | 6 goals, 1 assist, 7 points |
| 2022-23 | 24 goals, 17 assists, 41 points | 4 goals, 10 assists, 14 points | 3 goals, 3 assists, 6 points |
| 2021-22 | 13 goals, 29 assists, 42 points | 3 goals, 7 assists, 10 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
257 attempts · 27 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.