Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 416 game sample- PTS
- 41.2
- SOG
- 195.2
- G
- 16.6
- A
- 24.6
- PPP
- 4.6
- HIT
- 41.3
- BLK
- 35.5
- PIM
- 23.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 416 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 416 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 416 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.50
- G
- 0.20
- A
- 0.30
- SOG
- 2.39
- PPP
- 0.06
- HIT
- 0.50
- BLK
- 0.43
- PIM
- 0.29
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 17 | 26 | 43 | 0.52 | 186 | 17:57 |
| 2024-25 | 76 | 15 | 17 | 32 | 0.42 | 175 | 18:44 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 15 | 24 | 39 | 0.48 | 209 | 19:14 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 19 | 37 | 56 | 0.68 | 260 | 18:10 |
| 2021-22 | 82 | 12 | 27 | 39 | 0.48 | 214 | 17:07 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 0.67 | 33 | 19:34 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | vs LAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:22 |
| Apr 14 | vs COL | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:36 |
| Apr 12 | vs UTA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:42 |
| Apr 11 | @ SEA | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 |
| Apr 9 | @ COL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:16 |
| Apr 7 | @ DAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:38 |
| Apr 4 | @ ANA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21:40 |
| Apr 2 | @ VGK | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 20:20 |
| Mar 30 | @ COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:56 |
| Mar 28 | vs VAN | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:41 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 18.6 | 17 | minus 1.6 goals above expected | 76 | 272 |
| 2024-25 | 17.6 | 15 | minus 2.6 goals above expected | 71 | 267 |
| 2023-24 | 20.9 | 15 | minus 5.9 goals above expected | 79 | 307 |
| 2022-23 | 26.6 | 19 | minus 7.6 goals above expected | 80 | 345 |
| 2021-22 | 23.2 | 12 | minus 11.2 goals above expected | 81 | 288 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 15 goals, 20 assists, 35 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points |
| 2024-25 | 13 goals, 12 assists, 25 points | 1 goal, 5 assists, 6 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 12 goals, 22 assists, 34 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2022-23 | 13 goals, 27 assists, 40 points | 5 goals, 7 assists, 12 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points |
| 2021-22 | 12 goals, 20 assists, 32 points | 0 goals, 7 assists, 7 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
272 attempts · 17 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.