Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 440 game sample- PTS
- 54.1
- SOG
- 175.7
- G
- 28.1
- A
- 26.0
- PPP
- 18.2
- HIT
- 102.5
- BLK
- 24.7
- PIM
- 30.1
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 440 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 440 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 440 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.66
- G
- 0.34
- A
- 0.32
- SOG
- 2.15
- PPP
- 0.22
- HIT
- 1.25
- BLK
- 0.30
- PIM
- 0.37
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 75 | 22 | 28 | 50 | 0.67 | 139 | 17:03 |
| 2024-25 | 68 | 22 | 8 | 30 | 0.44 | 152 | 16:45 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 39 | 36 | 75 | 0.91 | 246 | 18:47 |
| 2022-23 | 79 | 36 | 18 | 54 | 0.68 | 229 | 18:25 |
| 2021-22 | 81 | 52 | 25 | 77 | 0.95 | 258 | 18:44 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0.58 | 13 | 15:11 |
| 2023-24 | 16 | 8 | 4 | 12 | 0.75 | 39 | 19:50 |
| 2022-23 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 1.29 | 14 | 19:14 |
| 2021-22 | 20 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 0.80 | 49 | 19:04 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14 | vs VGKPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:49 |
| May 12 | @ VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:51 |
| May 10 | vs VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:00 |
| May 8 | vs VGKPO | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 17:09 |
| May 6 | @ VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 19:46 |
| May 4 | @ VGKPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:31 |
| Apr 30 | vs EDMPO | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:15 |
| Apr 28 | @ EDMPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:46 |
| Apr 26 | vs EDMPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14:52 |
| Apr 24 | vs EDMPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11:09 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 23.3 | 22 | minus 1.3 goals above expected | 68 | 227 |
| 2024-25 | 21.1 | 22 | plus 0.9 goals above expected | 66 | 216 |
| 2023-24 | 35.0 | 39 | plus 4.0 goals above expected | 80 | 371 |
| 2022-23 | 36.9 | 36 | minus 0.9 goals above expected | 78 | 335 |
| 2021-22 | 33.0 | 52 | plus 19.0 goals above expected | 80 | 343 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13 goals, 19 assists, 32 points | 9 goals, 9 assists, 18 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 12 goals, 7 assists, 19 points | 6 goals, 1 assist, 7 points | 4 goals, 0 assists, 4 points |
| 2023-24 | 19 goals, 22 assists, 41 points | 18 goals, 11 assists, 29 points | 2 goals, 3 assists, 5 points |
| 2022-23 | 23 goals, 9 assists, 32 points | 9 goals, 9 assists, 18 points | 4 goals, 0 assists, 4 points |
| 2021-22 | 23 goals, 16 assists, 39 points | 26 goals, 9 assists, 35 points | 3 goals, 0 assists, 3 points |
Shot locations
227 attempts · 22 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.