Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 234 game sample- PTS
- 54.0
- SOG
- 143.4
- G
- 25.4
- A
- 28.6
- PPP
- 16.3
- HIT
- 118.2
- BLK
- 53.2
- PIM
- 51.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 234 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 234 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 234 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.66
- G
- 0.31
- A
- 0.35
- SOG
- 1.75
- PPP
- 0.20
- HIT
- 1.44
- BLK
- 0.65
- PIM
- 0.63
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 44 | 13 | 21 | 34 | 0.77 | 69 | 15:50 |
| 2024-25 | 56 | 21 | 14 | 35 | 0.63 | 96 | 18:21 |
| 2023-24 | 50 | 16 | 14 | 30 | 0.60 | 115 | 17:38 |
| 2022-23 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.38 | 15 | 17:59 |
| 2021-22 | 66 | 35 | 20 | 55 | 0.83 | 172 | 18:35 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.30 | 16 | 16:52 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18 | vs MTLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:37 |
| May 16 | @ MTLPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 15:27 |
| May 14 | vs MTLPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:32 |
| May 12 | @ MTLPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:41 |
| May 10 | @ MTLPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13:45 |
| May 8 | vs MTLPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:39 |
| May 6 | vs MTLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:08 |
| May 1 | @ BOSPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16:45 |
| Apr 21 | vs BOSPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16:39 |
| Apr 19 | vs BOSPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16:32 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12.4 | 13 | plus 0.6 goals above expected | 39 | 105 |
| 2024-25 | 12.3 | 20 | plus 7.7 goals above expected | 48 | 140 |
| 2023-24 | 13.3 | 16 | plus 2.7 goals above expected | 46 | 154 |
| 2022-23 | 2.0 | 2 | minus 0.0 goals above expected | 8 | 23 |
| 2021-22 | 22.7 | 35 | plus 12.3 goals above expected | 63 | 246 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11 goals, 14 assists, 25 points | 2 goals, 7 assists, 9 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 12 goals, 8 assists, 20 points | 6 goals, 5 assists, 11 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
| 2023-24 | 11 goals, 6 assists, 17 points | 5 goals, 7 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 19 goals, 13 assists, 32 points | 16 goals, 7 assists, 23 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
105 attempts · 13 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.