Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 444 game sample- PTS
- 91.9
- SOG
- 237.4
- G
- 33.7
- A
- 58.3
- PPP
- 29.5
- HIT
- 17.8
- BLK
- 15.3
- PIM
- 20.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 444 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 444 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 444 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 1.13
- G
- 0.41
- A
- 0.71
- SOG
- 2.90
- PPP
- 0.36
- HIT
- 0.21
- BLK
- 0.18
- PIM
- 0.25
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 78 | 28 | 56 | 84 | 1.08 | 224 | 20:50 |
| 2024-25 | 80 | 37 | 52 | 89 | 1.11 | 237 | 19:41 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 49 | 71 | 120 | 1.46 | 303 | 20:07 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 29 | 63 | 92 | 1.12 | 204 | 19:37 |
| 2021-22 | 75 | 22 | 74 | 96 | 1.28 | 177 | 19:13 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.75 | 4 | 21:46 |
| 2023-24 | 16 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 0.94 | 44 | 20:41 |
| 2022-23 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.29 | 15 | 19:20 |
| 2021-22 | 20 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 0.80 | 50 | 20:19 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26 | vs COLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:45 |
| Apr 23 | vs COLPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:33 |
| Apr 21 | @ COLPO | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:38 |
| Apr 19 | @ COLPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:07 |
| Apr 16 | @ CGY | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:26 |
| Apr 14 | @ VAN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:01 |
| Apr 13 | @ SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:27 |
| Apr 11 | vs EDM | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:23 |
| Apr 9 | vs VAN | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:23 |
| Apr 6 | vs NSH | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:52 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 26.3 | 27 | plus 0.7 goals above expected | 75 | 363 |
| 2024-25 | 27.8 | 37 | plus 9.2 goals above expected | 79 | 398 |
| 2023-24 | 33.6 | 49 | plus 15.4 goals above expected | 81 | 431 |
| 2022-23 | 23.0 | 29 | plus 6.0 goals above expected | 78 | 306 |
| 2021-22 | 20.0 | 22 | plus 2.0 goals above expected | 70 | 265 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 23 goals, 37 assists, 60 points | 4 goals, 19 assists, 23 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 29 goals, 34 assists, 63 points | 8 goals, 18 assists, 26 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 38 goals, 38 assists, 76 points | 11 goals, 33 assists, 44 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 20 goals, 35 assists, 55 points | 9 goals, 28 assists, 37 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 18 goals, 42 assists, 60 points | 4 goals, 32 assists, 36 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
363 attempts · 27 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.