Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 450 game sample- PTS
- 74.6
- SOG
- 211.3
- G
- 29.3
- A
- 45.3
- PPP
- 30.8
- HIT
- 79.4
- BLK
- 50.4
- PIM
- 18.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 450 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 450 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 450 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.91
- G
- 0.36
- A
- 0.55
- SOG
- 2.58
- PPP
- 0.38
- HIT
- 0.97
- BLK
- 0.61
- PIM
- 0.23
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 34 | 44 | 78 | 0.96 | 215 | 20:54 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 20 | 42 | 62 | 0.76 | 183 | 18:46 |
| 2023-24 | 81 | 26 | 46 | 72 | 0.89 | 221 | 19:44 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 39 | 52 | 91 | 1.11 | 251 | 19:58 |
| 2021-22 | 81 | 29 | 52 | 81 | 1.00 | 219 | 19:38 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 16 | 1.00 | 40 | 21:18 |
| 2022-23 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.57 | 16 | 19:28 |
| 2021-22 | 20 | 10 | 14 | 24 | 1.20 | 63 | 20:50 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ TBL | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:42 |
| Apr 13 | @ FLA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:26 |
| Apr 11 | @ DAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:22 |
| Apr 8 | vs BUF | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:44 |
| Apr 5 | vs WSH | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 19:54 |
| Apr 4 | vs DET | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:51 |
| Apr 2 | vs MTL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 23:00 |
| Mar 31 | vs NJD | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:20 |
| Mar 29 | vs FLA | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:55 |
| Mar 27 | vs CHI | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:54 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 8 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 27.9 | 34 | plus 6.1 goals above expected | 79 | 338 |
| 2024-25 | 23.2 | 20 | minus 3.2 goals above expected | 77 | 303 |
| 2023-24 | 25.3 | 26 | plus 0.7 goals above expected | 80 | 340 |
| 2022-23 | 31.0 | 39 | plus 8.0 goals above expected | 77 | 368 |
| 2021-22 | 26.1 | 29 | plus 2.9 goals above expected | 79 | 313 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16 goals, 25 assists, 41 points | 16 goals, 19 assists, 35 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 13 goals, 24 assists, 37 points | 7 goals, 12 assists, 19 points | 0 goals, 6 assists, 6 points |
| 2023-24 | 13 goals, 23 assists, 36 points | 12 goals, 19 assists, 31 points | 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points |
| 2022-23 | 18 goals, 31 assists, 49 points | 20 goals, 20 assists, 40 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 13 goals, 35 assists, 48 points | 15 goals, 13 assists, 28 points | 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points |
Shot locations
338 attempts · 34 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 8
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.