Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 337 game sample- PTS
- 29.9
- SOG
- 142.1
- G
- 13.0
- A
- 16.9
- PPP
- 5.8
- HIT
- 97.0
- BLK
- 28.4
- PIM
- 47.2
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 337 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 337 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 337 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.36
- G
- 0.16
- A
- 0.21
- SOG
- 1.73
- PPP
- 0.07
- HIT
- 1.18
- BLK
- 0.34
- PIM
- 0.58
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 77 | 7 | 16 | 23 | 0.30 | 121 | 12:21 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 21 | 17 | 38 | 0.46 | 148 | 13:55 |
| 2023-24 | 77 | 16 | 15 | 31 | 0.40 | 154 | 13:47 |
| 2022-23 | 37 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 0.38 | 93 | 14:17 |
| 2021-22 | 56 | 7 | 17 | 24 | 0.43 | 142 | 15:01 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 6:25 |
| 2024-25 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.40 | 13 | 15:37 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 3 | @ TBLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:48 |
| May 1 | vs TBLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:39 |
| Apr 29 | @ TBLPO | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6:48 |
| Apr 14 | @ PHI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:34 |
| Apr 5 | vs NJD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:22 |
| Apr 4 | @ NJD | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:48 |
| Apr 2 | @ NYR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:50 |
| Mar 31 | @ TBL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8:18 |
| Mar 29 | @ CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11:27 |
| Mar 28 | @ NSH | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13:15 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 15.2 | 7 | minus 8.2 goals above expected | 66 | 178 |
| 2024-25 | 24.3 | 21 | minus 3.3 goals above expected | 74 | 223 |
| 2023-24 | 17.8 | 16 | minus 1.8 goals above expected | 74 | 219 |
| 2022-23 | 10.3 | 8 | minus 2.3 goals above expected | 37 | 124 |
| 2021-22 | 18.5 | 7 | minus 11.5 goals above expected | 55 | 194 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5 goals, 13 assists, 18 points | 2 goals, 3 assists, 5 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 16 goals, 15 assists, 31 points | 5 goals, 2 assists, 7 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 15 goals, 12 assists, 27 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 8 goals, 4 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 2 goals, 15 assists, 17 points | 5 goals, 2 assists, 7 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
178 attempts · 7 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.