Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 381 game sample- PTS
- 54.0
- SOG
- 146.9
- G
- 20.0
- A
- 34.0
- PPP
- 17.8
- HIT
- 56.2
- BLK
- 50.0
- PIM
- 50.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 381 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 381 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 381 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.66
- G
- 0.24
- A
- 0.42
- SOG
- 1.79
- PPP
- 0.22
- HIT
- 0.68
- BLK
- 0.61
- PIM
- 0.62
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 50 | 10 | 15 | 25 | 0.50 | 83 | 18:08 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 28 | 34 | 62 | 0.77 | 153 | 19:32 |
| 2023-24 | 81 | 12 | 40 | 52 | 0.64 | 143 | 17:25 |
| 2022-23 | 79 | 15 | 40 | 55 | 0.70 | 126 | 16:52 |
| 2021-22 | 80 | 30 | 85 | 115 | 1.44 | 222 | 19:25 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0.50 | 25 | 20:47 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4 | vs EDM | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 |
| Feb 2 | vs TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:26 |
| Jan 31 | vs SJS | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18:49 |
| Jan 29 | @ MIN | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:48 |
| Jan 25 | vs ANA | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:18 |
| Jan 23 | vs WSH | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:41 |
| Jan 19 | vs NJD | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:02 |
| Jan 17 | vs NYI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:17 |
| Jan 15 | @ CHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:26 |
| Jan 13 | @ CBJ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:02 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Feb 4 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12.7 | 10 | minus 2.7 goals above expected | 47 | 127 |
| 2024-25 | 20.2 | 28 | plus 7.8 goals above expected | 77 | 205 |
| 2023-24 | 17.5 | 12 | minus 5.5 goals above expected | 78 | 209 |
| 2022-23 | 17.4 | 15 | minus 2.4 goals above expected | 73 | 184 |
| 2021-22 | 27.3 | 30 | plus 2.7 goals above expected | 78 | 280 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7 goals, 11 assists, 18 points | 3 goals, 4 assists, 7 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 15 goals, 20 assists, 35 points | 10 goals, 13 assists, 23 points | 3 goals, 1 assist, 4 points |
| 2023-24 | 8 goals, 25 assists, 33 points | 4 goals, 15 assists, 19 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 11 goals, 29 assists, 40 points | 4 goals, 11 assists, 15 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 22 goals, 50 assists, 72 points | 5 goals, 33 assists, 38 points | 3 goals, 2 assists, 5 points |
Shot locations
127 attempts · 10 goals · 2025-26Markets · Feb 4
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.