Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 435 game sample- PTS
- 124.5
- SOG
- 359.0
- G
- 47.6
- A
- 76.9
- PPP
- 36.0
- HIT
- 61.1
- BLK
- 47.1
- PIM
- 40.2
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 435 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 435 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 435 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 1.52
- G
- 0.58
- A
- 0.94
- SOG
- 4.39
- PPP
- 0.44
- HIT
- 0.74
- BLK
- 0.57
- PIM
- 0.49
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 80 | 53 | 74 | 127 | 1.59 | 350 | 22:16 |
| 2024-25 | 79 | 32 | 84 | 116 | 1.47 | 320 | 22:47 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 51 | 89 | 140 | 1.71 | 405 | 22:49 |
| 2022-23 | 71 | 42 | 69 | 111 | 1.56 | 366 | 22:19 |
| 2021-22 | 65 | 32 | 56 | 88 | 1.35 | 299 | 21:04 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 1.15 | 47 | 21:13 |
| 2024-25 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 1.57 | 39 | 22:50 |
| 2023-24 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 1.27 | 46 | 24:37 |
| 2022-23 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1.00 | 40 | 23:44 |
| 2021-22 | 20 | 13 | 11 | 24 | 1.20 | 117 | 21:25 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26 | @ VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:10 |
| May 24 | @ VGKPO | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18:02 |
| May 22 | vs VGKPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 22:30 |
| May 20 | vs VGKPO | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:32 |
| May 13 | vs MINPO | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:01 |
| May 11 | @ MINPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:48 |
| May 9 | @ MINPO | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23:51 |
| May 5 | vs MINPO | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:06 |
| May 3 | vs MINPO | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:06 |
| Apr 26 | @ LAKPO | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 17:47 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 44.3 | 53 | plus 8.7 goals above expected | 80 | 470 |
| 2024-25 | 34.1 | 32 | minus 2.1 goals above expected | 78 | 433 |
| 2023-24 | 39.1 | 51 | plus 11.9 goals above expected | 82 | 526 |
| 2022-23 | 37.0 | 42 | plus 5.0 goals above expected | 71 | 480 |
| 2021-22 | 28.6 | 32 | plus 3.4 goals above expected | 63 | 385 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 42 goals, 55 assists, 97 points | 11 goals, 19 assists, 30 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 23 goals, 55 assists, 78 points | 9 goals, 29 assists, 38 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 41 goals, 51 assists, 92 points | 10 goals, 38 assists, 48 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 30 goals, 47 assists, 77 points | 12 goals, 22 assists, 34 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 25 goals, 36 assists, 61 points | 7 goals, 20 assists, 27 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
470 attempts · 53 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.