Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 471 game sample- PTS
- 62.5
- SOG
- 222.7
- G
- 27.4
- A
- 35.1
- PPP
- 15.1
- HIT
- 85.4
- BLK
- 25.7
- PIM
- 39.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 471 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 471 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 471 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.76
- G
- 0.34
- A
- 0.43
- SOG
- 2.72
- PPP
- 0.18
- HIT
- 1.04
- BLK
- 0.31
- PIM
- 0.48
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 77 | 25 | 30 | 55 | 0.71 | 187 | 17:37 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 20 | 33 | 53 | 0.65 | 242 | 17:52 |
| 2023-24 | 76 | 34 | 38 | 72 | 0.95 | 246 | 17:58 |
| 2022-23 | 81 | 42 | 31 | 73 | 0.90 | 275 | 17:30 |
| 2021-22 | 78 | 24 | 31 | 55 | 0.71 | 167 | 16:03 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 23 | 7 | 16 | 23 | 1.00 | 52 | 18:55 |
| 2023-24 | 24 | 11 | 10 | 21 | 0.88 | 79 | 19:20 |
| 2022-23 | 21 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 0.81 | 59 | 19:58 |
| 2021-22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 1.20 | 22 | 16:45 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9 | @ OTT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:15 |
| Apr 7 | @ MTL | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21:54 |
| Apr 5 | @ PIT | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:43 |
| Apr 4 | @ PIT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:52 |
| Apr 2 | vs BOS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:11 |
| Mar 31 | vs OTT | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16:59 |
| Mar 29 | @ NYR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:52 |
| Mar 28 | @ NYI | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:11 |
| Mar 26 | vs MIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:11 |
| Mar 24 | vs SEA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:47 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 23.4 | 25 | plus 1.6 goals above expected | 77 | 275 |
| 2024-25 | 28.2 | 20 | minus 8.2 goals above expected | 80 | 349 |
| 2023-24 | 28.9 | 34 | plus 5.1 goals above expected | 76 | 338 |
| 2022-23 | 33.4 | 42 | plus 8.6 goals above expected | 80 | 353 |
| 2021-22 | 24.4 | 24 | minus 0.4 goals above expected | 74 | 232 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 18 goals, 25 assists, 43 points | 7 goals, 5 assists, 12 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 15 goals, 22 assists, 37 points | 5 goals, 11 assists, 16 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 26 goals, 25 assists, 51 points | 8 goals, 13 assists, 21 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 35 goals, 26 assists, 61 points | 7 goals, 5 assists, 12 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 24 goals, 28 assists, 52 points | 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
275 attempts · 25 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.