Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 454 game sample- PTS
- 87.0
- SOG
- 213.1
- G
- 30.5
- A
- 56.5
- PPP
- 24.6
- HIT
- 85.6
- BLK
- 25.6
- PIM
- 28.7
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 454 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 454 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 454 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 1.06
- G
- 0.37
- A
- 0.69
- SOG
- 2.60
- PPP
- 0.30
- HIT
- 1.04
- BLK
- 0.31
- PIM
- 0.35
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 78 | 38 | 62 | 100 | 1.28 | 206 | 21:30 |
| 2024-25 | 79 | 27 | 56 | 83 | 1.05 | 194 | 19:00 |
| 2023-24 | 77 | 24 | 29 | 53 | 0.69 | 231 | 17:22 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 28 | 43 | 71 | 0.87 | 240 | 18:25 |
| 2021-22 | 78 | 14 | 26 | 40 | 0.51 | 159 | 16:11 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 13 | 1.00 | 32 | 20:39 |
| 2024-25 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0.71 | 15 | 20:47 |
| 2023-24 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 0.82 | 24 | 17:32 |
| 2022-23 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0.47 | 42 | 19:33 |
| 2021-22 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0.36 | 22 | 15:05 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26 | @ VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:06 |
| May 24 | @ VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:18 |
| May 22 | vs VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 21:05 |
| May 20 | vs VGKPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:41 |
| May 13 | vs MINPO | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23:17 |
| May 11 | @ MINPO | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:32 |
| May 9 | @ MINPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:52 |
| May 5 | vs MINPO | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:02 |
| May 3 | vs MINPO | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:38 |
| Apr 26 | @ LAKPO | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:48 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 29.2 | 38 | plus 8.8 goals above expected | 76 | 306 |
| 2024-25 | 22.5 | 27 | plus 4.5 goals above expected | 75 | 295 |
| 2023-24 | 21.6 | 24 | plus 2.4 goals above expected | 75 | 323 |
| 2022-23 | 27.6 | 28 | plus 0.4 goals above expected | 81 | 349 |
| 2021-22 | 14.9 | 14 | minus 0.9 goals above expected | 70 | 226 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 30 goals, 47 assists, 77 points | 8 goals, 15 assists, 23 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 15 goals, 31 assists, 46 points | 12 goals, 25 assists, 37 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 16 goals, 24 assists, 40 points | 8 goals, 5 assists, 13 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 19 goals, 25 assists, 44 points | 9 goals, 17 assists, 26 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 11 goals, 24 assists, 35 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
Shot locations
306 attempts · 38 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.