Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 404 game sample- PTS
- 42.3
- SOG
- 202.1
- G
- 21.6
- A
- 20.7
- PPP
- 2.4
- HIT
- 167.5
- BLK
- 58.3
- PIM
- 54.7
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 404 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 404 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 404 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.52
- G
- 0.26
- A
- 0.25
- SOG
- 2.47
- PPP
- 0.03
- HIT
- 2.05
- BLK
- 0.71
- PIM
- 0.67
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 69 | 20 | 15 | 35 | 0.51 | 176 | 17:20 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 15 | 24 | 39 | 0.48 | 194 | 17:41 |
| 2023-24 | 78 | 30 | 24 | 54 | 0.69 | 191 | 17:08 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 18 | 20 | 38 | 0.46 | 188 | 15:12 |
| 2021-22 | 81 | 16 | 17 | 33 | 0.41 | 212 | 14:49 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.42 | 33 | 14:48 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | vs LAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16:37 |
| Apr 14 | vs COL | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16:45 |
| Apr 12 | vs UTA | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20:25 |
| Apr 11 | @ SEA | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19:24 |
| Apr 7 | @ DAL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 22:40 |
| Apr 4 | @ ANA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 18:51 |
| Apr 2 | @ VGK | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:05 |
| Mar 30 | @ COL | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 16:24 |
| Mar 28 | vs VAN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:29 |
| Mar 26 | vs ANA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:30 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 7 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 21.6 | 20 | minus 1.6 goals above expected | 66 | 243 |
| 2024-25 | 25.7 | 15 | minus 10.7 goals above expected | 78 | 292 |
| 2023-24 | 25.1 | 30 | plus 4.9 goals above expected | 75 | 262 |
| 2022-23 | 23.9 | 18 | minus 5.9 goals above expected | 73 | 264 |
| 2021-22 | 22.2 | 16 | minus 6.2 goals above expected | 77 | 268 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16 goals, 14 assists, 30 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 4 goals, 0 assists, 4 points |
| 2024-25 | 10 goals, 21 assists, 31 points | 4 goals, 1 assist, 5 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points |
| 2023-24 | 23 goals, 22 assists, 45 points | 3 goals, 0 assists, 3 points | 4 goals, 2 assists, 6 points |
| 2022-23 | 16 goals, 20 assists, 36 points | 0-0-0 | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 15 goals, 16 assists, 31 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
Shot locations
243 attempts · 20 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 7
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.