Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 377 game sample- PTS
- 93.7
- SOG
- 269.9
- G
- 27.3
- A
- 66.4
- PPP
- 31.1
- HIT
- 47.3
- BLK
- 62.7
- PIM
- 23.1
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 377 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 377 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 377 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 1.15
- G
- 0.33
- A
- 0.81
- SOG
- 3.30
- PPP
- 0.38
- HIT
- 0.57
- BLK
- 0.76
- PIM
- 0.28
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 74 | 27 | 63 | 90 | 1.22 | 260 | 21:12 |
| 2024-25 | 77 | 28 | 66 | 94 | 1.22 | 233 | 20:32 |
| 2023-24 | 63 | 31 | 37 | 68 | 1.08 | 278 | 20:31 |
| 2022-23 | 67 | 27 | 39 | 66 | 0.99 | 223 | 18:46 |
| 2021-22 | 34 | 14 | 11 | 25 | 0.74 | 133 | 19:23 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 22 | 2 | 20 | 22 | 1.00 | 52 | 22:26 |
| 2024-25 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 0.91 | 30 | 23:08 |
| 2023-24 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1.00 | 23 | 21:21 |
| 2022-23 | 22 | 6 | 20 | 26 | 1.18 | 71 | 18:59 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14 | vs CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24:07 |
| Jun 11 | @ CARPO | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 23:31 |
| Jun 9 | vs CARPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:44 |
| Jun 6 | vs CARPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 26:43 |
| Jun 4 | @ CARPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 22:22 |
| Jun 2 | @ CARPO | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:33 |
| May 26 | vs COLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 21:12 |
| May 24 | vs COLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 23:02 |
| May 22 | @ COLPO | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 19:06 |
| May 20 | @ COLPO | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19:32 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 27.7 | 27 | minus 0.7 goals above expected | 74 | 363 |
| 2024-25 | 24.6 | 28 | plus 3.4 goals above expected | 74 | 305 |
| 2023-24 | 25.4 | 31 | plus 5.6 goals above expected | 63 | 347 |
| 2022-23 | 22.0 | 27 | plus 5.0 goals above expected | 67 | 283 |
| 2021-22 | 12.2 | 14 | plus 1.8 goals above expected | 34 | 160 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 25 goals, 33 assists, 58 points | 1 goal, 28 assists, 29 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points |
| 2024-25 | 22 goals, 36 assists, 58 points | 5 goals, 29 assists, 34 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 20 goals, 24 assists, 44 points | 11 goals, 11 assists, 22 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2022-23 | 25 goals, 27 assists, 52 points | 2 goals, 12 assists, 14 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 11 goals, 6 assists, 17 points | 3 goals, 5 assists, 8 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
363 attempts · 27 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.