Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 401 game sample- PTS
- 73.4
- SOG
- 190.8
- G
- 33.9
- A
- 39.5
- PPP
- 22.6
- HIT
- 24.6
- BLK
- 38.1
- PIM
- 16.2
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 401 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 401 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 401 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.90
- G
- 0.41
- A
- 0.48
- SOG
- 2.33
- PPP
- 0.28
- HIT
- 0.29
- BLK
- 0.46
- PIM
- 0.20
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 63 | 18 | 32 | 50 | 0.79 | 129 | 18:16 |
| 2024-25 | 77 | 42 | 40 | 82 | 1.06 | 189 | 19:29 |
| 2023-24 | 81 | 46 | 44 | 90 | 1.11 | 227 | 20:02 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 51 | 44 | 95 | 1.16 | 235 | 19:40 |
| 2021-22 | 66 | 28 | 30 | 58 | 0.88 | 176 | 19:28 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | 12 | 18:52 |
| 2024-25 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.40 | 12 | 21:48 |
| 2023-24 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1.00 | 12 | 20:37 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.67 | 20 | 20:32 |
| 2021-22 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.56 | 22 | 18:46 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 3 | vs MTLPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:06 |
| May 1 | @ MTLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17:21 |
| Apr 29 | vs MTLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:17 |
| Apr 26 | @ MTLPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:57 |
| Apr 24 | @ MTLPO | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:22 |
| Apr 21 | vs MTLPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 21:34 |
| Apr 19 | vs MTLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:30 |
| Apr 13 | vs DET | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:13 |
| Apr 11 | @ BOS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:21 |
| Apr 9 | @ MTL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:22 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 11 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 22.1 | 18 | minus 4.1 goals above expected | 58 | 188 |
| 2024-25 | 30.8 | 42 | plus 11.2 goals above expected | 75 | 275 |
| 2023-24 | 33.3 | 46 | plus 12.7 goals above expected | 80 | 321 |
| 2022-23 | 39.7 | 51 | plus 11.3 goals above expected | 80 | 320 |
| 2021-22 | 30.6 | 28 | minus 2.6 goals above expected | 66 | 252 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12 goals, 27 assists, 39 points | 6 goals, 5 assists, 11 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 26 goals, 26 assists, 52 points | 16 goals, 14 assists, 30 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 31 goals, 27 assists, 58 points | 15 goals, 17 assists, 32 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 31 goals, 34 assists, 65 points | 20 goals, 10 assists, 30 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 18 goals, 18 assists, 36 points | 10 goals, 12 assists, 22 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
188 attempts · 18 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 11
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.