Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 408 game sample- PTS
- 58.8
- SOG
- 162.8
- G
- 32.5
- A
- 26.4
- PPP
- 16.1
- HIT
- 118.0
- BLK
- 36.5
- PIM
- 26.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 408 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 408 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 408 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.72
- G
- 0.40
- A
- 0.32
- SOG
- 1.99
- PPP
- 0.20
- HIT
- 1.44
- BLK
- 0.44
- PIM
- 0.33
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 39 | 29 | 68 | 0.84 | 181 | 17:25 |
| 2024-25 | 77 | 33 | 24 | 57 | 0.74 | 150 | 16:55 |
| 2023-24 | 76 | 17 | 22 | 39 | 0.51 | 130 | 15:25 |
| 2022-23 | 69 | 9 | 19 | 28 | 0.41 | 81 | 10:28 |
| 2021-22 | 73 | 7 | 15 | 22 | 0.30 | 97 | 12:37 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.67 | 12 | 18:11 |
| 2023-24 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0.38 | 19 | 16:40 |
| 2022-23 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.31 | 14 | 11:19 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | vs BUFPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 18:57 |
| Apr 28 | @ BUFPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18:46 |
| Apr 26 | vs BUFPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:15 |
| Apr 23 | vs BUFPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:32 |
| Apr 21 | @ BUFPO | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 16:17 |
| Apr 19 | @ BUFPO | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:16 |
| Apr 14 | vs NJD | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:42 |
| Apr 12 | @ CBJ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:49 |
| Apr 11 | vs TBL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 16:54 |
| Apr 7 | @ CAR | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:37 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 11 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 26.6 | 39 | plus 12.4 goals above expected | 79 | 274 |
| 2024-25 | 21.7 | 33 | plus 11.3 goals above expected | 73 | 229 |
| 2023-24 | 12.9 | 17 | plus 4.1 goals above expected | 68 | 171 |
| 2022-23 | 7.5 | 9 | plus 1.5 goals above expected | 57 | 115 |
| 2021-22 | 10.5 | 7 | minus 3.5 goals above expected | 60 | 142 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 27 goals, 18 assists, 45 points | 12 goals, 11 assists, 23 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 29 goals, 19 assists, 48 points | 4 goals, 5 assists, 9 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 13 goals, 14 assists, 27 points | 4 goals, 8 assists, 12 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 8 goals, 19 assists, 27 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 7 goals, 11 assists, 18 points | 0 goals, 4 assists, 4 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
274 attempts · 39 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 11
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.