Thu, Nov 12, 2026
Tonight’s sheet
10 of 11 games have posted player lines
As captured before puck drop, each game’s time beside it; not updated during play.
The model has not beaten the Pinnacle closing line: shots-on-goal ROI −0.0709 [−0.0932, −0.0467] per unit over 7,171 bets in a 2025-26 backtest of 512 games. How this was measured
11 games · 456 players · sorted by projection
How to read the sheet — what Line, Proj and P(over) mean, and what is projected before puck drop
Line is the book's posted threshold · Proj is the model's mean · P(over) is the modelled probability of finishing above the line. Each bar is P(G = k) — the whole distribution, not a pick. Research context, not a recommendation.
Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (AUC 0.600, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect). That figure is measured on 2025-26, the season the rest adjustment was first seen in, so it describes that season rather than testing the model on games it had not seen.
This date has projections for Anytime goal, Assists and Shots on goal only; the other markets are dimmed.
Before puck drop only shots on goal and assists are projected, and only for a club that has already played this season: the model reads the days of rest since a club’s last game, which a season opener does not have. So an opener shows no projections for that club, and a game can list one club’s players and not the other’s.
Carolina Hurricanes at Seattle Kraken
12:00 PM ETCaptured between Nov 12, 11:37 AM ET and Nov 12, 11:38 AM ETGame pageWin chance: Set Nov 12, 7:50 AM ET, before puck drop
Line
0.5
Proj
0.5
P(over)
38%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
36%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
34%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
32%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
28%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
25%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
25%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
25%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
24%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
23%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
21%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
20%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
19%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
19%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
16%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
15%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
14%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
14%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
12%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
12%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
12%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
12%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
10%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
10%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
9%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
9%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
8%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
8%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
8%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
6%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
5%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
5%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
4%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
4%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
3%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
2%
No projection — out of tonight's lineup.
No projection — out of tonight's lineup.
No projection — out of tonight's lineup.
No projection — out of tonight's lineup.
Montréal Canadiens at Boston Bruins
7:00 PM ETCaptured between Nov 12, 5:17 PM ET and Nov 12, 6:56 PM ETGame pageWin chance: Set Nov 12, 7:50 AM ET, before puck drop
Line
0.5
Proj
0.5
P(over)
38%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
33%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
31%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
31%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
28%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
26%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
25%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
25%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
24%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
24%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
23%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
21%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
21%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
20%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
19%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
18%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
18%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
17%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
16%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
15%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
15%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
15%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
15%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
13%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
12%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
11%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
11%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
9%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
8%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
8%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
5%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
4%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
4%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
3%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
2%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
1%
No projection.
No projection — out of tonight's lineup.
No projection — out of tonight's lineup.
No projection — out of tonight's lineup.
No projection — out of tonight's lineup.
No projection — out of tonight's lineup.
No projection — out of tonight's lineup.
Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple Leafs
7:00 PM ETCaptured between Nov 12, 5:17 PM ET and Nov 12, 6:46 PM ETGame pageWin chance: Set Nov 12, 7:50 AM ET, before puck drop
Line
0.5
Proj
0.5
P(over)
40%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
36%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
34%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
32%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
31%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
26%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
25%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
22%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
22%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
21%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
20%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
20%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
19%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
18%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
18%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
17%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
17%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
17%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
16%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
13%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
13%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
13%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
10%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
10%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
8%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
7%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
6%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
6%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
5%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
4%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
4%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
3%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
3%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
2%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
1%
No projection.
No projection.
No projection.
No projection — out of tonight's lineup.
No projection — out of tonight's lineup.
No projection — out of tonight's lineup.
No projection — out of tonight's lineup.
No projection — out of tonight's lineup.
Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators
7:00 PM ETCaptured between Nov 12, 6:18 PM ET and Nov 12, 6:46 PM ETGame pageWin chance: Set Nov 12, 7:50 AM ET, before puck drop
Line
0.5
Proj
0.5
P(over)
36%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
32%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
32%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
31%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
28%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
27%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
27%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
27%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
25%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
25%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
24%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
23%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
22%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
21%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
21%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
20%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
19%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
18%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
17%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
15%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
15%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
13%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
12%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
12%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
11%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
10%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
9%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
9%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
8%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
5%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
4%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
4%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
4%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
2%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
2%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
1%
No projection — out of tonight's lineup.
No projection — out of tonight's lineup.
Washington Capitals at New Jersey Devils
7:00 PM ETCaptured between Nov 12, 4:48 PM ET and Nov 12, 6:54 PM ETGame pageWin chance: Set Nov 12, 7:50 AM ET, before puck drop
Line
0.5
Proj
0.5
P(over)
39%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
35%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
33%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
27%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
27%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
27%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
25%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
24%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
24%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
21%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
19%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
18%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
17%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
17%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
16%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
16%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
15%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
14%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
13%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
13%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
13%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
13%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
12%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
12%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
12%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
12%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
9%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
8%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
7%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
5%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
5%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
3%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
2%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
2%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
2%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
1%
No projection.
No projection — out of tonight's lineup.
No projection — out of tonight's lineup.
No projection — out of tonight's lineup.
No projection — out of tonight's lineup.
No projection — out of tonight's lineup.
No projection — out of tonight's lineup.
Tampa Bay Lightning at Columbus Blue Jackets
7:00 PM ETCaptured between Nov 12, 5:17 PM ET and Nov 12, 6:46 PM ETGame pageWin chance: Set Nov 12, 7:50 AM ET, before puck drop
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
34%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
32%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
29%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
28%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
26%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
26%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
24%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
19%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
18%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
18%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
18%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
17%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
17%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
17%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
15%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
15%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
15%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
14%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
13%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
11%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
11%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
10%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
10%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
10%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
9%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
8%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
8%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
8%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
7%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
6%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
6%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
5%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
5%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
2%
No projection.
No projection.
No projection.
No projection — out of tonight's lineup.
No projection — out of tonight's lineup.
No projection — out of tonight's lineup.
No projection — out of tonight's lineup.
No projection — out of tonight's lineup.
No projection — out of tonight's lineup.
Detroit Red Wings at Florida Panthers
7:30 PM ETCaptured between Nov 12, 6:18 PM ET and Nov 12, 6:46 PM ETGame pageWin chance: Set Nov 12, 7:50 AM ET, before puck drop
Line
0.5
Proj
0.6
P(over)
43%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.5
P(over)
40%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
31%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
30%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
27%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
27%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
27%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
26%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
24%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
23%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
23%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
21%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
19%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
18%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
18%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
17%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
16%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
14%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
14%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
13%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
11%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
9%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
8%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
8%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
7%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
7%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
6%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
6%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
6%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
5%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
5%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
5%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
4%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
3%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
3%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
3%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
1%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
1%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
1%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
1%
No projection.
No projection.
No projection.
Buffalo Sabres at Chicago Blackhawks
8:00 PM ETCaptured Nov 12, 6:46 PM ETGame pageWin chance: Set Nov 12, 7:50 AM ET, before puck drop
Line
0.5
Proj
0.5
P(over)
37%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
34%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
34%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
31%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
30%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
25%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
24%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
22%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
21%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
21%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
20%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
20%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
19%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
18%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
17%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
17%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
16%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
15%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
14%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
13%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
11%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
11%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
11%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
11%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
11%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
8%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
8%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
7%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
7%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
7%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
6%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
6%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
5%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
5%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
4%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
4%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
4%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
3%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
2%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
2%
Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars
8:00 PM ETCaptured between Nov 12, 6:18 PM ET and Nov 12, 6:46 PM ETGame pageWin chance: Set Nov 12, 7:50 AM ET, before puck drop
Line
0.5
Proj
0.6
P(over)
45%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.5
P(over)
36%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
35%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
31%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
31%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
30%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
28%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
26%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
23%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
22%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
17%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
15%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
15%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
15%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
14%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
14%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
13%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
13%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
12%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
12%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
11%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
11%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
11%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
11%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
11%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
10%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
9%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
8%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
7%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
7%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
6%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
5%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
5%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
4%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
4%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
3%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
2%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
2%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
2%
No projection.
St. Louis Blues at Utah Mammoth
9:00 PM ETCaptured Nov 12, 6:46 PM ETGame pageWin chance: Set Nov 12, 7:50 AM ET, before puck drop
Line
0.5
Proj
0.5
P(over)
41%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
29%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
28%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
28%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
28%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
27%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
26%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
24%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
23%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
23%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
23%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
21%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
21%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
19%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
18%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
18%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
18%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
17%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
17%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
17%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
16%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
16%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
15%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
14%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
13%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
13%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
12%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
11%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
11%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
10%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
8%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
8%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
7%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
7%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
7%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
7%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
6%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
5%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
5%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
4%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
3%
New York Islanders at Los Angeles Kings
10:00 PM ETCaptured Nov 12, 6:46 PM ETGame pageWin chance: Set Nov 12, 7:50 AM ET, before puck drop
Line
0.5
Proj
0.5
P(over)
39%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.5
P(over)
37%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
36%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
34%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
33%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
32%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
30%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
30%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
26%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
25%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
20%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
18%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
18%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
17%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
16%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
16%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
15%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
15%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
14%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
12%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
11%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
11%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
10%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
10%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
10%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
9%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
9%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
8%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
7%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
6%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
6%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
5%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
5%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
4%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
4%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
4%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
3%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
3%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
3%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
2%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
2%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
2%
NHL · Shots on goal
Distributions, not picks.
OddPuck projects a full shots-on-goal distribution for each skater on the slate the model can score — P(SOG = k) against the book's posted line — from five seasons of play-by-play. No units, no plays of the day. You read the shape and draw your own conclusions.
They were measured against the Pinnacle closing line, which they do not beat — shots-on-goal ROI −0.0709 [−0.0932, −0.0467] per unit over 7,171 bets in a 2025-26 backtest of 512 games, and the model's disagreement with the market carries no signal a paired test can separate from betting the other side instead. That is the measured result, reported rather than buried.
The signature — P(SOG = k) vs the line
Bars right of the line clear it; each height is the modelled probability. Positional, never a verdict.