Pavel Zacha — stats, projections, finishing and game log

How good

Among 980 forwards, 2021-22 to 2026-27

Pool: every forward who played in those seasons · Sample: 417 games

Top tenth of his pool in points and assists.

Production

Production: percentile among 980 forwards, and the adjusted per-game rate it was computed from
Stat	Pctl	Adjusted per game
Points	90	0.71
Goals	87	0.28
Assists	90	0.43
Shots on goal	76	1.71
Power-play points	89	0.20

Style and role

Style and role: percentile among 980 forwards, and the adjusted per-game rate it was computed from
Stat	Pctl	Adjusted per game
Hits	35	0.93
Blocked shots	12	0.33
Penalty minutes	34	0.30

Further right means more, not better: hits, blocked shots and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.

What adjusted per game means — not his recorded rate

Adjusted per game is the rate each percentile was computed from: his recorded rate, weighted toward recent games and pulled toward the league average by sample size, so a short career does not read as an elite one. It sits closer to average than the rate recorded, so a skater with no points in his games can still show points per game above zero.

How he got here

Each regular season

Stat

PTS G A SOG PPP HIT BLK PIM

Show

Per GP Totals

Points per game played, regular season. Filled dots are finished seasons; the smaller dot is the season to date; the dotted ring is the 2026-27 projection, the per-game rate the projections board uses. GP: games played.

What next

2026-27, projected

Full-season pace · his rate times the schedule

If he plays all 84 Boston Bruins games at his modelled per-game rate

Points: 59.7
Goals: 23.8
Assists: 35.9

Shots on goal: 143.9
Power-play points: 16.7
Hits: 78.5
Blocked shots: 28.1
Penalty minutes: 25.4

Based on 417 games he has played, weighted toward recent ones. It assumes he plays all 84: injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled.

How the pace is worked out — the figure the projections board ranks on

Each figure is his per-game rate, weighted toward recent games, times the 84 games on the Boston Bruins schedule. It is the pace the projections board ranks the league on, so the figure a reader clicked there is the one at the top of this card.

What carries into 2026-27 · a forecast, not a result

Above-average finishing; most of it projected to fade

2025-26 · beyond the scale+4.66+0.852026-27, projected

Goals above expected per 100 attempts, against the average for centres

That was +9.5 goals over 204 attempts; the forecast is ≈ +1.7 at the same volume.

How the forecast is worked out — the carried share is measured over five seasons

18% of a season's rate against centres carries into the next: +4.66 × 18% ≈ +0.85 per 100 attempts. The share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for his position.

Against centres, not raw goals above expected. Goals minus was +8.0: 30 goals on 22.0 xG, or +3.91 per 100 attempts. Centres as a group scored −0.75 per 100 against xG, so against centres his rate was +4.66. Penalty-shot goals are left out: the model does not rate penalty shots.

Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figures assume the same number of attempts. A gap that persists means he reliably scores above what this model expects, which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates; the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.

This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.

Shooting

Where he shoots, and how he finishes

Shot density · 2025-26 · open play, regular season

FewerMore attempts, up to this skater’s busiest cell

6 more attempts came from outside the offensive zone and are not in the grid.

Open play · regular season · goals

Goals against a league-average finisher, by season

In 2025-26 he scored 30 where a league-average finisher would score 21.1 from his chances: 8.9 more.

2025-26 · on the rink30 G · 21.1 avg · +8.9 · 71 GP
2024-2514 G · 21.0 avg · −7.0 · 76 GP
2023-2421 G · 20.6 avg · +0.4 · 72 GP
2022-2321 G · 16.4 avg · +4.6 · 76 GP
2021-2215 G · 20.9 avg · −5.9 · 67 GP

Goals
A league-average finisher

What the ring counts — what a league-average finisher would score from the same attempts

The shot model prices the chance of a goal on every unblocked attempt he took in open play during the regular season; shootouts and penalty shots are left out. Those chances are scaled so that, across the league, they add up to the goals actually scored that season, so the ring is what a league-average finisher would have scored from his attempts and each season is measured against its own average. The gap is his goals minus that; the table below lists the exact figures.

Finishing against the league average · open play, regular season

Finishing by season: goals against a league-average finisher on the same attempts
Season		G
2025-26	21.1	30	+8.9	71	204
2024-25	21.0	14	−7.0	76	199
2023-24	20.6	21	+0.4	72	211
2022-23	16.4	21	+4.6	76	179
2021-22	20.9	15	−5.9	67	211

G vs avg: goals minus what a league-average finisher would score from the same attempts (Exp G, the model’s expected goals scaled to that season’s league-wide scoring).

Detail

The record

Regular season

Games

Regular season Playoffs

Regular season, by season
Season		G	A	P
2026-27	1	0	0	0	0.00	3	15:24
2025-26	78	30	35	65	0.83	131	16:51
2024-25	82	14	33	47	0.57	132	19:04
2023-24	78	21	38	59	0.76	148	18:07
2022-23	82	21	36	57	0.70	131	16:04
2021-22	70	15	21	36	0.51	148	16:51

2025-26 regular season by strength · G-A-P

Even strength: 19 goals, 24 assists, 43 points
Power play: 11 goals, 11 assists, 22 points
Shorthanded: 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points

Penalty-shot goals are not counted here: each one leaves these a goal and a point below his regular-season totals.

Last 10 games

Last 10 games, newest first
Date	Opp		G	A		HIT	BLK	PIM
Sep 29	vs NYR	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:24
May 1	vs BUF, playoff game	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:21
Apr 28	@ BUF, playoff game	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	24:19
Apr 26	vs BUF, playoff game	1	0	0	0	3	0	0	14:42
Apr 23	vs BUF, playoff game	5	0	0	0	3	1	0	19:54
Apr 21	@ BUF, playoff game	2	1	0	1	1	0	0	14:24
Apr 19	@ BUF, playoff game	1	0	1	1	1	1	2	17:02
Apr 14	vs NJD	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	4:58
Apr 11	vs TBL	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:11
Apr 7	@ CAR	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	16:59

PO = playoff game.

Markets · tonight

Oct 2 at Winnipeg Jets · 8:00 PM ET

The model has not beaten the Pinnacle closing line: shots-on-goal ROI −0.0709 [−0.0932, −0.0467] per unit over 7,171 bets in a 2025-26 backtest of 512 games. How this was measured

Lineup unconfirmed

Pre-game snapshotCaptured Oct 2, 7:52 PM ET· not updated during play

This game’s markets: the posted line and the model’s projection
Market	Line	Model projection
Assists	0.5	0.3
Shots on goal	1.5	1.7

No probability shown for assists and shots on goal: these markets’ models are not calibrated well enough to state one.