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Kirby Dach

Montréal Canadiens

Kirby Dach

MTLForwardJersey number #77

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2026-27 regular season

Games played
1
Goals
0
Assists
1
Points
1

As of Oct 2, 6:09 AM ET · updated each morning

How good

Among 980 forwards, 2021-22 to 2026-27

Pool: every forward who played in those seasons · Sample: 244 games

No production figure in the top quarter of his pool. Top tenth in penalty minutes, which describes his role rather than his quality.

Production

Production: percentile among 980 forwards, and the adjusted per-game rate it was computed from
StatPctlAdjusted per game
Points620.41
Goals730.20
Assists520.21
Shots on goal481.34
Power-play points650.08

Style and role

Style and role: percentile among 980 forwards, and the adjusted per-game rate it was computed from
StatPctlAdjusted per game
Hits731.55
Blocked shots690.64
Penalty minutes900.80

Further right means more, not better: hits, blocked shots and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.

What adjusted per game means — not his recorded rate
Adjusted per game is the rate each percentile was computed from: his recorded rate, weighted toward recent games and pulled toward the league average by sample size, so a short career does not read as an elite one. It sits closer to average than the rate recorded, so a skater with no points in his games can still show points per game above zero.

How he got here

Each regular season

  • 2021-22: 0.37 over 70 games
  • 2022-23: 0.66 over 58 games
  • 2023-24: 1.00 over 2 games
  • 2024-25: 0.39 over 57 games
  • 2025-26: 0.41 over 37 games
  • 2026-27 to date: 1.00 over 1 games
  • 2026-27 projected: 0.41
Points per game played, regular season. Filled dots are finished seasons; the smaller dot is the season to date; the dotted ring is the 2026-27 projection, the per-game rate the projections board uses. GP: games played.

What next

2026-27, projected

Full-season pace · his rate times the schedule

If he plays all 84 Montréal Canadiens games at his modelled per-game rate

Points
34.0
Goals
16.4
Assists
17.6
Shots on goal
112.3
Power-play points
6.7
Hits
130.1
Blocked shots
53.5
Penalty minutes
66.8

Based on 244 games he has played, weighted toward recent ones. It assumes he plays all 84: injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled.

How the pace is worked out — the figure the projections board ranks on

Each figure is his per-game rate, weighted toward recent games, times the 84 games on the Montréal Canadiens schedule. It is the pace the projections board ranks the league on, so the figure a reader clicked there is the one at the top of this card.

Shooting

Where he shoots, and how he finishes

Shot density · 2025-26 · open play, regular season

FewerMore attempts, up to this skater’s busiest cell

3 more attempts came from outside the offensive zone and are not in the grid.

Open play · regular season · goals

Goals against a league-average finisher, by season

In 2025-26 he scored 8 where a league-average finisher would score 6.5 from his chances: 1.5 more.

  1. 2025-26 · on the rink8 G · 6.5 avg · +1.5 · 31 GP

  2. 2024-2510 G · 11.3 avg · −1.3 · 51 GP

  3. 2023-240 G · 0.3 avg · −0.3 · 1 GP

  4. 2022-2314 G · 13.2 avg · +0.8 · 57 GP

  5. 2021-229 G · 14.6 avg · −5.6 · 64 GP

  • Goals
  • A league-average finisher
What the ring counts — what a league-average finisher would score from the same attempts

The shot model prices the chance of a goal on every unblocked attempt he took in open play during the regular season; shootouts and penalty shots are left out. Those chances are scaled so that, across the league, they add up to the goals actually scored that season, so the ring is what a league-average finisher would have scored from his attempts and each season is measured against its own average. The gap is his goals minus that; the table below lists the exact figures.

Finishing against the league average · open play, regular season

Finishing by season: goals against a league-average finisher on the same attempts
SeasonG
2025-266.58+1.53177
2024-2511.310−1.351124
2023-240.30−0.313
2022-2313.214+0.857151
2021-2214.69−5.664157

G vs avg: goals minus what a league-average finisher would score from the same attempts (Exp G, the model’s expected goals scaled to that season’s league-wide scoring).

Detail

The record

Regular season

Regular season, by season
SeasonGAP
2026-2710111.00111:07
2025-263787150.414713:40
2024-25571012220.398415:40
2023-2420221.00313:01
2022-23581424380.6610718:30
2021-2270917260.3711618:02

2025-26 regular season by strength · G-A-P

Even strength
8 goals, 5 assists, 13 points
Power play
0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points
Shorthanded
0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points

Penalty-shot goals are not counted here: each one leaves these a goal and a point below his regular-season totals.

Last 10 games

Last 10 games, newest first
DateOppGAHITBLKPIM
Sep 29@ TOR101020011:07
May 29@ CAR, playoff game000010010:23
May 27vs CAR, playoff game00002128:45
May 25vs CAR, playoff game00003108:03
May 23@ CAR, playoff game000001011:22
May 21@ CAR, playoff game100010010:39
May 18@ BUF, playoff game10004108:58
May 16vs BUF, playoff game2000301011:24
May 14@ BUF, playoff game40003009:05
May 12vs BUF, playoff game10001008:51

PO = playoff game.

Markets · latest captured, not current

Apr 9 vs Tampa Bay Lightning · 7:00 PM ET

The prices posted for a game already played. Open to see them.

The model has not beaten the Pinnacle closing line: shots-on-goal ROI −0.0709 [−0.0932, −0.0467] per unit over 7,171 bets in a 2025-26 backtest of 512 games. How this was measured

Pre-game snapshotCaptured Oct 1, 8:21 PM ET

This game’s markets: the posted line, the model’s projection and its chance of the over
MarketLineModel projectionModel chance of over
Anytime goal0.50.217%