Tampa Bay Lightning

John Carlson

TBLDefenceJersey number #74

Compare with…

2026-27 regular season

Games played: 1
Goals: 0
Assists: 0
Points: 0

As of Oct 2, 6:09 AM ET · updated each morning

How good

Among 509 defencemen, 2021-22 to 2026-27

Pool: every defenceman who played in those seasons · Sample: 383 games

Top tenth of his pool in shots on goal and points. Top quarter in blocked shots, which describes his role rather than his quality.

Production

Production: percentile among 509 defencemen, and the adjusted per-game rate it was computed from
Stat	Pctl	Adjusted per game
Points	97	0.71
Goals	84	0.14
Assists	97	0.57
Shots on goal	98	2.18
Power-play points	94	0.20

Style and role

Style and role: percentile among 509 defencemen, and the adjusted per-game rate it was computed from
Stat	Pctl	Adjusted per game
Hits	21	0.63
Blocked shots	87	1.65
Penalty minutes	38	0.38

Further right means more, not better: hits, blocked shots and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.

What adjusted per game means — not his recorded rate

Adjusted per game is the rate each percentile was computed from: his recorded rate, weighted toward recent games and pulled toward the league average by sample size, so a short career does not read as an elite one. It sits closer to average than the rate recorded, so a skater with no points in his games can still show points per game above zero.

How he got here

Each regular season

Stat

PTS G A SOG PPP HIT BLK PIM

Show

Per GP Totals

Points per game played, regular season. Filled dots are finished seasons; the smaller dot is the season to date; the dotted ring is the 2026-27 projection, the per-game rate the projections board uses. GP: games played.

What next

2026-27, projected

Full-season pace · his rate times the schedule

If he plays all 84 Tampa Bay Lightning games at his modelled per-game rate

Points: 59.6
Goals: 11.5
Assists: 48.1

Shots on goal: 182.7
Power-play points: 17.0
Hits: 53.0
Blocked shots: 139.0
Penalty minutes: 32.1

Based on 383 games he has played, weighted toward recent ones. It assumes he plays all 84: injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled.

How the pace is worked out — the figure the projections board ranks on

Each figure is his per-game rate, weighted toward recent games, times the 84 games on the Tampa Bay Lightning schedule. It is the pace the projections board ranks the league on, so the figure a reader clicked there is the one at the top of this card.

What carries into 2026-27 · a forecast, not a result

Above-average finishing; most of it projected to fade

2025-26+0.66+0.122026-27, projected

Goals above expected per 100 attempts, against the average for defencemen

That was +1.6 goals over 244 attempts; the forecast is ≈ +0.3 at the same volume.

How the forecast is worked out — the carried share is measured over five seasons

18% of a season's rate against defencemen carries into the next: +0.66 × 18% ≈ +0.12 per 100 attempts. The share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for his position.

Against defencemen, not raw goals above expected. Goals minus was +2.2: 14 goals on 11.8 xG, or +0.89 per 100 attempts. Defencemen as a group scored +0.23 per 100 against xG, so against defencemen his rate was +0.66. Penalty-shot goals are left out: the model does not rate penalty shots.

Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figures assume the same number of attempts. A gap that persists means he reliably scores above what this model expects, which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates; the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.

This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.

Shooting

Where he shoots, and how he finishes

Shot density · 2025-26 · open play, regular season

FewerMore attempts, up to this skater’s busiest cell

20 more attempts came from outside the offensive zone and are not in the grid.

Open play · regular season · goals

Goals against a league-average finisher, by season

In 2025-26 he scored 14 where a league-average finisher would score 11.3 from his chances: 2.7 more.

2025-26 · on the rink14 G · 11.3 avg · +2.7 · 71 GP
2024-255 G · 10.3 avg · −5.3 · 75 GP
2023-2410 G · 12.0 avg · −2.0 · 78 GP
2022-239 G · 8.6 avg · +0.4 · 40 GP
2021-2217 G · 12.8 avg · +4.2 · 75 GP

Goals
A league-average finisher

What the ring counts — what a league-average finisher would score from the same attempts

The shot model prices the chance of a goal on every unblocked attempt he took in open play during the regular season; shootouts and penalty shots are left out. Those chances are scaled so that, across the league, they add up to the goals actually scored that season, so the ring is what a league-average finisher would have scored from his attempts and each season is measured against its own average. The gap is his goals minus that; the table below lists the exact figures.

Finishing against the league average · open play, regular season

Finishing by season: goals against a league-average finisher on the same attempts
Season		G
2025-26	11.3	14	+2.7	71	244
2024-25	10.3	5	−5.3	75	256
2023-24	12.0	10	−2.0	78	274
2022-23	8.6	9	+0.4	40	193
2021-22	12.8	17	+4.2	75	278

G vs avg: goals minus what a league-average finisher would score from the same attempts (Exp G, the model’s expected goals scaled to that season’s league-wide scoring).

Detail

The record

Regular season

Games

Regular season Playoffs

Regular season, by season
Season		G	A	P
2026-27	1	0	0	0	0.00	4	23:41
2025-26	71	14	46	60	0.85	153	23:10
2024-25	79	5	46	51	0.65	167	23:34
2023-24	82	10	42	52	0.63	176	25:53
2022-23	40	9	20	29	0.73	124	23:23
2021-22	78	17	54	71	0.91	195	23:49

2025-26 regular season by strength · G-A-P

Even strength: 12 goals, 34 assists, 46 points
Power play: 2 goals, 12 assists, 14 points
Shorthanded: 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points

Penalty-shot goals are not counted here: each one leaves these a goal and a point below his regular-season totals.

Last 10 games

Last 10 games, newest first
Date	Opp		A		HIT	BLK	PIM
Oct 1	@ NYR	4	0	0	1	2	0	23:41
May 14	vs VGK, playoff game	3	0	0	1	1	0	23:02
May 12	@ VGK, playoff game	3	0	0	2	2	0	26:16
May 10	vs VGK, playoff game	1	0	0	1	0	2	21:39
May 8	vs VGK, playoff game	3	0	0	2	0	0	21:02
May 6	@ VGK, playoff game	2	0	0	3	1	0	24:53
May 4	@ VGK, playoff game	2	1	0	1	2	2	24:43
Apr 30	vs EDM, playoff game	2	1	0	0	2	0	24:29
Apr 28	@ EDM, playoff game	4	0	0	2	0	0	25:34
Apr 26	vs EDM, playoff game	2	2	1	1	2	0	25:46

PO = playoff game.

Markets · latest captured, not current

Apr 9 vs San Jose Sharks · 10:00 PM ET

The prices posted for a game already played. Open to see them.

He played for ANA in this game.

The model has not beaten the Pinnacle closing line: shots-on-goal ROI −0.0709 [−0.0932, −0.0467] per unit over 7,171 bets in a 2025-26 backtest of 512 games. How this was measured

Pre-game snapshotCaptured between Jul 30, 2:39 PM ET and Oct 1, 8:21 PM ET

This game’s markets: the posted line, the model’s projection and its chance of the over
Market	Line	Model projection	Model chance of over
Anytime goal	0.5	0.2	16%
Power-play points	0.5	0.1	Not shown
Shots on goal	2.5	2.1	Not shown
Assists, hits, blocked shots, penalty minutes	No line posted.

No probability shown for power-play points and shots on goal: these markets’ models are not calibrated well enough to state one.