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Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

Projections

Every headline stat per skater — over a full regular season, ranked league-wide by shots.

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Each player's recency-weighted per-game rate — from 5 seasons of real games, recent games weighted more (the weighting is backtested) — × their team's scheduled games in the window. Computed overnight, then only read — this page never recalculates a projection. Availability is not projected: Proj GP is the team's schedule, not a forecast of how many games the player dresses for, and injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled.

How well does projection ordering hold? View the ordering study

897 skaters · sorted by shots

#
Skater
PTS
G
A
SOG
PPP
HIT
BLK
PIM
Proj GP
1
Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
124.5
47.6
76.9
359.0
36.0
61.1
47.1
40.2
82
2
Auston MatthewsTOR · C
86.0
42.9
43.1
326.8
23.4
78.2
105.4
23.4
82
3
Brady TkachukFLA · L
72.6
31.9
40.8
319.5
25.2
250.4
30.0
120.9
82
4
Jack HughesNJD · C
99.0
36.8
62.1
314.2
33.0
9.2
39.0
15.7
82
5
David PastrnakBOS · R
104.4
38.5
65.9
311.9
30.6
84.4
30.9
62.6
82
6
Connor McDavidEDM · C
132.8
40.9
91.9
289.9
48.9
66.1
34.5
39.5
82
7
Macklin CelebriniSJS · C
102.1
40.1
62.0
282.6
30.6
50.5
55.8
40.6
82
8
Zach WerenskiCBJ · D
82.5
22.0
60.5
281.2
22.1
28.8
118.3
23.9
82
9
Kirill KaprizovMIN · L
99.3
47.0
52.2
280.9
34.3
60.8
37.7
32.9
82
10
Timo MeierNJD · R
53.1
28.1
25.0
275.7
13.3
146.7
58.8
41.2
82
11
Tage ThompsonBUF · C
80.6
41.0
39.6
275.1
23.5
85.3
41.8
46.1
82
12
Kyle ConnorWPG · L
91.2
39.4
51.9
274.7
22.9
32.8
27.8
17.1
82
13
Matt BoldyMIN · L
82.8
38.4
44.3
272.7
27.0
65.1
58.3
39.4
82
14
Jack EichelVGK · C
93.7
27.3
66.4
269.9
31.1
47.3
62.7
23.1
82
15
Filip ForsbergNSH · L
77.9
38.3
39.6
268.6
26.6
135.3
40.4
37.6
82
16
Alex OvechkinWSH · L
71.5
38.4
33.1
268.1
23.1
149.9
19.2
25.6
82
17
Alex DeBrincatDET · R
77.1
37.6
39.5
266.5
24.4
47.3
38.2
25.3
82
18
Nikita KucherovTBL · R
129.3
40.5
88.8
265.7
43.9
41.8
31.6
49.2
82
19
Cutter GauthierANA · L
65.3
34.7
30.6
265.3
18.9
85.1
31.1
26.8
82
20
Jason RobertsonDAL · L
88.5
40.3
48.2
263.0
33.9
58.7
37.0
24.9
82
21
Bo HorvatNYI · C
65.1
34.0
31.2
257.1
15.7
74.8
44.9
35.4
82
22
Cole CaufieldMTL · R
75.9
41.6
34.2
255.3
26.2
61.5
22.4
12.4
82
23
Nazem KadriCOL · C
61.0
23.9
37.0
249.0
21.4
61.4
28.9
45.4
82
24
Matthew TkachukFLA · L
90.6
32.7
57.9
248.5
33.6
125.0
26.0
109.5
82
25
Dylan LarkinDET · C
74.5
35.2
39.2
248.4
27.0
50.5
35.6
48.3
82
26
Dylan GuentherUTA · R
71.6
37.2
34.4
246.2
26.2
72.1
35.6
29.0
82
27
Joel Eriksson EkMIN · C
59.4
24.7
34.7
246.0
19.6
139.6
50.4
44.3
82
28
Connor BedardCHI · C
79.6
30.2
49.4
241.3
26.2
44.4
34.0
59.3
82
29
Leon DraisaitlEDM · C
120.3
47.6
72.6
241.1
46.6
51.4
29.2
39.4
82
30
William NylanderTOR · R
92.6
40.0
52.6
240.4
28.5
20.5
31.2
23.4
82
31
Zach HymanEDM · L
66.1
39.8
26.3
240.2
17.8
119.9
29.6
41.6
82
32
Roman JosiNSH · D
68.8
17.1
51.6
237.8
29.1
43.4
135.7
36.6
82
33
Artemi PanarinLAK · L
91.9
33.7
58.3
237.4
29.5
17.8
15.3
20.9
82
34
Adrian KempeLAK · R
74.0
35.9
38.1
237.1
17.5
121.7
38.6
55.0
82
35
Anton FrondellCHI · C12 sample
59.7
20.0
39.7
237.1
13.2
58.2
87.2
28.3
82
36
Jake GuentzelTBL · C
87.0
38.6
48.3
234.7
29.1
45.1
43.0
50.7
82
37
Cale MakarCOL · D
86.2
24.9
61.3
234.1
32.4
46.3
135.5
23.2
82
38
Kevin FialaLAK · L
64.7
29.8
34.9
232.4
26.3
66.8
29.8
49.3
82
39
Porter MartonePHI · R19 sample
63.4
25.3
38.1
232.0
20.9
205.9
28.0
51.2
82
40
Sam BennettFLA · C
59.4
28.7
30.8
230.1
14.4
173.4
40.6
99.6
82
41
Pavel DorofeyevNYR · R
57.2
35.6
21.6
229.2
23.1
27.5
31.8
22.1
82
42
Clayton KellerUTA · R
86.4
28.5
57.9
227.0
28.7
14.6
33.4
34.3
82
43
Dougie HamiltonNJD · D
46.9
13.2
33.7
226.3
17.1
92.8
90.9
50.6
82
44
Seth JarvisCAR · R
68.8
32.0
36.9
224.5
20.5
114.8
46.6
21.0
82
45
Sidney CrosbyPIT · C
90.5
34.5
55.9
223.4
27.1
77.0
39.9
46.1
82
46
Owen TippettPHI · R
49.1
25.8
23.4
222.8
7.3
160.6
55.3
23.8
82
47
Carter VerhaegheFLA · C
62.5
27.4
35.1
222.7
15.1
85.4
25.7
39.0
82
48
Kirill MarchenkoCBJ · R
67.5
29.2
38.3
221.7
20.8
61.6
42.6
27.4
82
49
Brandon HagelTBL · L
81.4
37.1
44.4
221.7
11.6
61.6
49.4
68.3
82
50
Brandon MontourSEA · D
43.3
14.9
28.4
221.4
13.2
98.9
97.7
65.3
82

No consistency figure for shots: it did not clear the nightly split-half-vs-Poisson gate. The gate withholds a figure both when a stat is measurably no better than chance and when the evidence is too split to call, and those are not separable from here — so read this as no published measure, not as a finding that shots is inconsistent. Sort by another stat to see it where it holds. Measured 2026-08-21. The nightly job has not refreshed this since — it is the last completed measurement, not a current one.