Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 427 game sample- PTS
- 43.3
- SOG
- 221.4
- G
- 14.9
- A
- 28.4
- PPP
- 13.2
- HIT
- 98.9
- BLK
- 97.7
- PIM
- 65.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 427 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 427 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 427 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.53
- G
- 0.18
- A
- 0.35
- SOG
- 2.71
- PPP
- 0.16
- HIT
- 1.21
- BLK
- 1.19
- PIM
- 0.80
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 64 | 11 | 21 | 32 | 0.50 | 174 | 22:34 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 18 | 23 | 41 | 0.51 | 231 | 22:59 |
| 2023-24 | 66 | 8 | 25 | 33 | 0.50 | 168 | 23:27 |
| 2022-23 | 80 | 16 | 57 | 73 | 0.91 | 242 | 24:08 |
| 2021-22 | 81 | 11 | 26 | 37 | 0.46 | 153 | 17:54 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 24 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 0.46 | 48 | 22:40 |
| 2022-23 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 0.62 | 72 | 26:58 |
| 2021-22 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.30 | 19 | 15:53 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ COL | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 21:57 |
| Apr 15 | @ VGK | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 21:19 |
| Apr 13 | vs LAK | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:58 |
| Apr 11 | vs CGY | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:11 |
| Apr 9 | vs VGK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 24:09 |
| Apr 7 | @ MIN | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19:43 |
| Apr 6 | @ WPG | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 21:38 |
| Apr 4 | vs CHI | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 25:03 |
| Apr 2 | vs UTA | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:37 |
| Mar 31 | @ EDM | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:41 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10.0 | 11 | plus 1.0 goals above expected | 64 | 255 |
| 2024-25 | 14.4 | 18 | plus 3.6 goals above expected | 79 | 363 |
| 2023-24 | 9.5 | 8 | minus 1.5 goals above expected | 64 | 247 |
| 2022-23 | 15.6 | 16 | plus 0.4 goals above expected | 80 | 339 |
| 2021-22 | 10.4 | 11 | plus 0.6 goals above expected | 74 | 219 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9 goals, 15 assists, 24 points | 2 goals, 6 assists, 8 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 13 goals, 17 assists, 30 points | 5 goals, 6 assists, 11 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 7 goals, 9 assists, 16 points | 1 goal, 16 assists, 17 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 13 goals, 28 assists, 41 points | 3 goals, 29 assists, 32 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 10 goals, 19 assists, 29 points | 1 goal, 7 assists, 8 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
255 attempts · 11 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.