Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 375 game sample- PTS
- 74.5
- SOG
- 248.4
- G
- 35.2
- A
- 39.2
- PPP
- 27.0
- HIT
- 50.5
- BLK
- 35.6
- PIM
- 48.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 375 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 375 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 375 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.91
- G
- 0.43
- A
- 0.48
- SOG
- 3.04
- PPP
- 0.33
- HIT
- 0.61
- BLK
- 0.43
- PIM
- 0.59
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 74 | 34 | 33 | 67 | 0.91 | 229 | 20:11 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 30 | 40 | 70 | 0.85 | 234 | 20:04 |
| 2023-24 | 68 | 33 | 36 | 69 | 1.01 | 221 | 20:10 |
| 2022-23 | 80 | 32 | 47 | 79 | 0.99 | 244 | 19:34 |
| 2021-22 | 71 | 31 | 38 | 69 | 0.97 | 212 | 19:40 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13 | @ TBL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:33 |
| Apr 11 | vs NJD | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:08 |
| Apr 9 | vs PHI | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:34 |
| Apr 7 | vs CBJ | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 23:20 |
| Apr 5 | vs MIN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:55 |
| Apr 4 | @ NYR | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:45 |
| Apr 2 | @ PHI | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:40 |
| Mar 31 | @ PIT | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 14:10 |
| Mar 28 | vs PHI | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 18:42 |
| Mar 27 | @ BUF | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:14 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 36.3 | 34 | minus 2.3 goals above expected | 74 | 350 |
| 2024-25 | 33.9 | 30 | minus 3.9 goals above expected | 81 | 347 |
| 2023-24 | 27.1 | 33 | plus 5.9 goals above expected | 67 | 313 |
| 2022-23 | 28.8 | 32 | plus 3.2 goals above expected | 79 | 346 |
| 2021-22 | 23.6 | 31 | plus 7.4 goals above expected | 70 | 281 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19 goals, 23 assists, 42 points | 14 goals, 10 assists, 24 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 17 goals, 26 assists, 43 points | 13 goals, 14 assists, 27 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 17 goals, 25 assists, 42 points | 14 goals, 11 assists, 25 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2022-23 | 15 goals, 32 assists, 47 points | 16 goals, 15 assists, 31 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 25 goals, 30 assists, 55 points | 6 goals, 7 assists, 13 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
Shot locations
350 attempts · 34 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.