Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 171 game sample- PTS
- 65.3
- SOG
- 265.3
- G
- 34.7
- A
- 30.6
- PPP
- 18.9
- HIT
- 85.1
- BLK
- 31.1
- PIM
- 26.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 171 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 171 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 171 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.80
- G
- 0.43
- A
- 0.37
- SOG
- 3.25
- PPP
- 0.23
- HIT
- 1.04
- BLK
- 0.38
- PIM
- 0.33
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 76 | 41 | 28 | 69 | 0.91 | 285 | 17:15 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 20 | 24 | 44 | 0.54 | 190 | 14:10 |
| 2023-24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | 3 | 15:24 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 1.00 | 39 | 16:15 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14 | vs VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:34 |
| May 12 | @ VGKPO | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 20:05 |
| May 10 | vs VGKPO | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:39 |
| May 8 | vs VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15:49 |
| May 6 | @ VGKPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16:42 |
| May 4 | @ VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:04 |
| Apr 30 | vs EDMPO | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:39 |
| Apr 28 | @ EDMPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16:39 |
| Apr 26 | vs EDMPO | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:25 |
| Apr 24 | vs EDMPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18:27 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Mar 8 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 31.2 | 41 | plus 9.8 goals above expected | 76 | 426 |
| 2024-25 | 18.1 | 20 | plus 1.9 goals above expected | 79 | 306 |
| 2023-24 | 0.2 | 0 | minus 0.2 goals above expected | 1 | 3 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 30 goals, 20 assists, 50 points | 11 goals, 8 assists, 19 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 18 goals, 20 assists, 38 points | 2 goals, 4 assists, 6 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
426 attempts · 41 goals · 2025-26Markets · Mar 8
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.