Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 423 game sample- PTS
- 61.0
- SOG
- 249.0
- G
- 23.9
- A
- 37.0
- PPP
- 21.4
- HIT
- 61.4
- BLK
- 28.9
- PIM
- 45.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 423 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 423 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 423 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.75
- G
- 0.29
- A
- 0.45
- SOG
- 3.05
- PPP
- 0.26
- HIT
- 0.75
- BLK
- 0.35
- PIM
- 0.55
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 77 | 16 | 34 | 50 | 0.65 | 213 | 19:02 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 35 | 32 | 67 | 0.82 | 279 | 19:22 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 29 | 46 | 75 | 0.91 | 277 | 18:26 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 24 | 32 | 56 | 0.68 | 267 | 17:13 |
| 2021-22 | 71 | 28 | 59 | 87 | 1.23 | 247 | 19:14 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 0.69 | 35 | 16:46 |
| 2021-22 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 0.94 | 58 | 17:22 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26 | @ VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:42 |
| May 24 | @ VGKPO | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:19 |
| May 22 | vs VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:48 |
| May 20 | vs VGKPO | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:26 |
| May 13 | vs MINPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:30 |
| May 11 | @ MINPO | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:13 |
| May 9 | @ MINPO | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21:07 |
| May 5 | vs MINPO | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:24 |
| May 3 | vs MINPO | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:51 |
| Apr 26 | @ LAKPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:47 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 7 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 26.5 | 16 | minus 10.5 goals above expected | 76 | 321 |
| 2024-25 | 29.5 | 35 | plus 5.5 goals above expected | 82 | 393 |
| 2023-24 | 32.0 | 29 | minus 3.0 goals above expected | 82 | 391 |
| 2022-23 | 29.5 | 24 | minus 5.5 goals above expected | 80 | 383 |
| 2021-22 | 29.0 | 28 | minus 1.0 goals above expected | 69 | 339 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11 goals, 20 assists, 31 points | 5 goals, 14 assists, 19 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 26 goals, 19 assists, 45 points | 9 goals, 13 assists, 22 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 19 goals, 34 assists, 53 points | 10 goals, 12 assists, 22 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 13 goals, 24 assists, 37 points | 11 goals, 8 assists, 19 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 20 goals, 38 assists, 58 points | 8 goals, 21 assists, 29 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
321 attempts · 16 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 7
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.