Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 390 game sample- PTS
- 64.7
- SOG
- 232.4
- G
- 29.8
- A
- 34.9
- PPP
- 26.3
- HIT
- 66.8
- BLK
- 29.8
- PIM
- 49.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 390 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 390 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 390 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.79
- G
- 0.37
- A
- 0.43
- SOG
- 2.84
- PPP
- 0.32
- HIT
- 0.81
- BLK
- 0.36
- PIM
- 0.60
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 56 | 18 | 22 | 40 | 0.71 | 147 | 19:07 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 35 | 25 | 60 | 0.74 | 244 | 18:31 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 29 | 44 | 73 | 0.89 | 225 | 18:02 |
| 2022-23 | 69 | 23 | 49 | 72 | 1.04 | 208 | 17:36 |
| 2021-22 | 82 | 33 | 52 | 85 | 1.04 | 262 | 17:39 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1.17 | 25 | 21:53 |
| 2023-24 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.40 | 16 | 18:36 |
| 2022-23 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 2.00 | 8 | 18:32 |
| 2021-22 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.50 | 15 | 17:35 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5 | @ VGK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:58 |
| Feb 4 | vs SEA | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 20:23 |
| Feb 1 | @ CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 18:14 |
| Jan 31 | @ PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:22 |
| Jan 29 | @ BUF | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:23 |
| Jan 27 | @ DET | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15:26 |
| Jan 24 | @ STL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 18:54 |
| Jan 20 | vs NYR | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:43 |
| Jan 17 | @ ANA | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 24:58 |
| Jan 16 | vs ANA | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:14 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Feb 5 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19.4 | 18 | minus 1.4 goals above expected | 55 | 236 |
| 2024-25 | 28.0 | 35 | plus 7.0 goals above expected | 79 | 386 |
| 2023-24 | 26.5 | 29 | plus 2.5 goals above expected | 80 | 343 |
| 2022-23 | 29.2 | 23 | minus 6.2 goals above expected | 69 | 270 |
| 2021-22 | 28.3 | 33 | plus 4.7 goals above expected | 79 | 358 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 14 goals, 9 assists, 23 points | 4 goals, 13 assists, 17 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 21 goals, 14 assists, 35 points | 14 goals, 11 assists, 25 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 18 goals, 25 assists, 43 points | 11 goals, 19 assists, 30 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 16 goals, 31 assists, 47 points | 7 goals, 18 assists, 25 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 27 goals, 40 assists, 67 points | 5 goals, 12 assists, 17 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
Shot locations
236 attempts · 18 goals · 2025-26Markets · Feb 5
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.