Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 292 game sample- PTS
- 67.5
- SOG
- 221.7
- G
- 29.2
- A
- 38.3
- PPP
- 20.8
- HIT
- 61.6
- BLK
- 42.6
- PIM
- 27.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 292 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 292 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 292 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.83
- G
- 0.36
- A
- 0.47
- SOG
- 2.71
- PPP
- 0.25
- HIT
- 0.75
- BLK
- 0.52
- PIM
- 0.33
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 76 | 27 | 40 | 67 | 0.88 | 218 | 18:56 |
| 2024-25 | 79 | 31 | 43 | 74 | 0.94 | 207 | 18:35 |
| 2023-24 | 78 | 23 | 19 | 42 | 0.54 | 193 | 16:25 |
| 2022-23 | 59 | 21 | 4 | 25 | 0.42 | 131 | 16:11 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | vs WSH | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:00 |
| Apr 12 | vs BOS | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 22:28 |
| Apr 11 | @ MTL | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17:12 |
| Apr 9 | @ BUF | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:58 |
| Apr 7 | @ DET | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 24:49 |
| Apr 4 | vs WPG | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:14 |
| Apr 2 | @ CAR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:15 |
| Mar 31 | vs CAR | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:20 |
| Mar 29 | vs BOS | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 22:31 |
| Mar 28 | vs SJS | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:50 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 26.5 | 27 | plus 0.5 goals above expected | 76 | 334 |
| 2024-25 | 23.5 | 31 | plus 7.5 goals above expected | 77 | 299 |
| 2023-24 | 20.2 | 23 | plus 2.8 goals above expected | 76 | 262 |
| 2022-23 | 17.3 | 21 | plus 3.7 goals above expected | 56 | 186 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 20 goals, 23 assists, 43 points | 6 goals, 17 assists, 23 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 29 goals, 26 assists, 55 points | 2 goals, 16 assists, 18 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 14 goals, 15 assists, 29 points | 9 goals, 4 assists, 13 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 14 goals, 3 assists, 17 points | 7 goals, 1 assist, 8 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
334 attempts · 27 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.