Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 262 game sample- PTS
- 57.2
- SOG
- 229.2
- G
- 35.6
- A
- 21.6
- PPP
- 23.1
- HIT
- 27.5
- BLK
- 31.8
- PIM
- 22.1
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 262 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 262 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 262 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.70
- G
- 0.44
- A
- 0.26
- SOG
- 2.80
- PPP
- 0.28
- HIT
- 0.33
- BLK
- 0.39
- PIM
- 0.27
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 37 | 27 | 64 | 0.78 | 230 | 17:36 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 35 | 17 | 52 | 0.63 | 254 | 16:32 |
| 2023-24 | 47 | 13 | 11 | 24 | 0.51 | 97 | 13:17 |
| 2022-23 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 0.50 | 40 | 14:14 |
| 2021-22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 6:30 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 22 | 12 | 4 | 16 | 0.73 | 58 | 17:04 |
| 2024-25 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.25 | 27 | 17:26 |
| 2023-24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 7:11 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14 | vs CARPO | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:50 |
| Jun 11 | @ CARPO | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:53 |
| Jun 9 | vs CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:09 |
| Jun 6 | vs CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:40 |
| Jun 4 | @ CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:55 |
| Jun 2 | @ CARPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:19 |
| May 26 | vs COLPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19:07 |
| May 24 | vs COLPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:09 |
| May 22 | @ COLPO | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:56 |
| May 20 | @ COLPO | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:21 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 31.0 | 37 | plus 6.0 goals above expected | 80 | 333 |
| 2024-25 | 26.8 | 35 | plus 8.2 goals above expected | 81 | 355 |
| 2023-24 | 10.9 | 13 | plus 2.1 goals above expected | 45 | 141 |
| 2022-23 | 4.7 | 7 | plus 2.3 goals above expected | 17 | 49 |
| 2021-22 | 0.3 | 0 | minus 0.3 goals above expected | 1 | 1 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 17 goals, 17 assists, 34 points | 20 goals, 10 assists, 30 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 22 goals, 13 assists, 35 points | 13 goals, 4 assists, 17 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 13 goals, 10 assists, 23 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 5 goals, 1 assist, 6 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
333 attempts · 37 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.