Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 367 game sample- PTS
- 59.4
- SOG
- 246.0
- G
- 24.7
- A
- 34.7
- PPP
- 19.6
- HIT
- 139.6
- BLK
- 50.4
- PIM
- 44.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 367 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 367 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 367 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.73
- G
- 0.30
- A
- 0.42
- SOG
- 3.01
- PPP
- 0.24
- HIT
- 1.71
- BLK
- 0.61
- PIM
- 0.54
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 70 | 19 | 32 | 51 | 0.73 | 194 | 19:05 |
| 2024-25 | 46 | 14 | 15 | 29 | 0.63 | 140 | 19:46 |
| 2023-24 | 77 | 30 | 34 | 64 | 0.83 | 267 | 20:32 |
| 2022-23 | 78 | 23 | 38 | 61 | 0.78 | 247 | 18:59 |
| 2021-22 | 77 | 26 | 23 | 49 | 0.64 | 223 | 18:35 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.83 | 24 | 23:44 |
| 2024-25 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.50 | 19 | 21:59 |
| 2022-23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0:19 |
| 2021-22 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.83 | 20 | 18:10 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30 | vs DALPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 20:00 |
| Apr 28 | @ DALPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 20:16 |
| Apr 25 | vs DALPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 28:44 |
| Apr 22 | vs DALPO | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 32:44 |
| Apr 20 | @ DALPO | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 21:35 |
| Apr 18 | @ DALPO | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:05 |
| Apr 9 | @ DAL | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:10 |
| Apr 7 | vs SEA | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13:09 |
| Apr 5 | @ DET | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:11 |
| Apr 4 | @ OTT | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 17:50 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 24.3 | 19 | minus 5.3 goals above expected | 69 | 279 |
| 2024-25 | 17.1 | 14 | minus 3.1 goals above expected | 46 | 187 |
| 2023-24 | 33.7 | 30 | minus 3.7 goals above expected | 77 | 361 |
| 2022-23 | 32.8 | 23 | minus 9.8 goals above expected | 76 | 336 |
| 2021-22 | 24.2 | 26 | plus 1.8 goals above expected | 72 | 277 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12 goals, 23 assists, 35 points | 7 goals, 9 assists, 16 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 9 goals, 10 assists, 19 points | 5 goals, 5 assists, 10 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 17 goals, 25 assists, 42 points | 12 goals, 9 assists, 21 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 9 goals, 26 assists, 35 points | 12 goals, 11 assists, 23 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
| 2021-22 | 14 goals, 18 assists, 32 points | 12 goals, 5 assists, 17 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
279 attempts · 19 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.