ODDPUCK
Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

Projections

Every headline stat per skater — over a full regular season, ranked league-wide by hits.

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Each player's recency-weighted per-game rate — from 5 seasons of real games, recent games weighted more (the weighting is backtested) — × their team's scheduled games in the window. Computed overnight, then only read — this page never recalculates a projection. Availability is not projected: Proj GP is the team's schedule, not a forecast of how many games the player dresses for, and injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled.

How well does projection ordering hold? View the ordering study

897 skaters · sorted by hits

#
Skater
PTS
G
A
SOG
PPP
HIT
BLK
PIM
Proj GP
1
Jacob MelansonSEA · R37 sample
11.9
4.8
7.2
75.6
0.2
418.1
30.2
71.0
82
2
Kiefer SherwoodSJS · L1.19×
39.5
22.1
17.5
170.0
8.1
395.2
32.9
49.7
82
3
Yakov TreninMIN · C1.02×
20.9
7.6
13.3
99.3
0.2
336.9
38.2
44.3
82
4
Jeremy LauzonVGK · D1.09×
12.5
2.0
10.5
85.4
0.1
319.3
113.4
97.3
82
5
Marc GatcombVGK · C0.83×
14.1
8.5
5.7
91.0
0.1
315.9
42.9
18.9
82
6
Garnet HathawayFLA · R1.38×
14.0
6.5
7.5
74.7
0.1
310.5
72.7
84.5
82
7
Martin PospisilCGY · C1.51×
22.7
5.3
17.4
110.5
2.2
305.5
26.2
89.8
82
8
Adam KlapkaCGY · R1.15×
20.0
8.0
12.1
88.4
1.8
300.5
55.0
111.4
82
9
Colton DachEDM · C1.10×
18.5
6.4
12.2
79.5
2.2
295.2
38.0
67.0
82
10
Will CuylleNYR · L1.10×
36.8
18.6
18.2
148.3
5.6
291.3
56.1
57.2
82
11
Sammy BlaisOTT · L1.13×
24.8
8.3
16.5
68.6
0.4
291.2
40.9
42.0
82
12
Nathan WalkerSTL · L0.92×
20.4
9.3
11.1
76.2
0.1
289.3
65.7
60.2
82
13
Dakota JoshuaTOR · C1.18×
27.6
14.7
12.9
80.8
1.1
287.9
45.1
67.2
82
14
Jack McBainUTA · C1.05×
27.4
10.8
16.6
100.1
0.9
287.3
48.2
80.7
82
15
Luke SchennVAN · D1.03×
11.0
1.8
9.3
76.3
0.1
287.1
102.0
69.6
82
16
Marcus FolignoMIN · L1.23×
26.3
14.1
12.2
93.0
1.8
285.8
58.2
92.8
82
17
Nicolas DeslauriersCAR · L1.40×
7.6
2.8
4.8
62.2
0.1
282.0
27.0
100.1
82
18
Michael PezzettaTOR · L1.19×
10.1
3.5
6.6
55.3
0.4
282.0
31.2
129.2
82
19
Mathieu OlivierCBJ · R1.16×
31.0
17.0
13.9
113.4
0.1
279.8
65.0
130.8
82
20
Keegan KolesarDET · R1.34×
18.6
7.3
11.3
71.1
0.1
275.1
44.4
53.4
82
21
Radko GudasFLA · D1.17×
18.4
2.9
15.5
96.2
0.7
267.7
152.3
101.5
82
22
Tanner JeannotBOS · L1.03×
21.4
8.2
13.3
85.5
1.0
267.2
56.0
88.0
82
23
Alex SteevesBOS · C0.96×
28.6
15.8
12.8
104.0
5.0
266.8
46.3
56.2
82
24
Liam O'BrienUTA · C1.48×
11.2
4.8
6.4
76.7
0.1
261.6
34.8
126.2
82
25
Ryan ReavesSJS · R1.28×
7.5
4.3
3.2
42.5
0.1
259.8
24.1
63.0
82
26
Lian BichselDAL · D1.14×
13.0
6.0
7.0
56.0
0.1
259.7
59.6
73.3
82
27
Beck MalenstynBUF · L0.95×
14.7
6.2
8.5
74.6
0.1
257.7
75.6
36.0
82
28
Connor CliftonBOS · D0.89×
14.9
3.0
11.9
69.9
0.1
252.0
127.1
71.3
82
29
Brady TkachukFLA · L1.38×
72.6
31.9
40.8
319.5
25.2
250.4
30.0
120.9
82
30
Matt RempeNYR · C1.03×
9.3
4.7
4.5
53.4
0.1
250.1
24.0
97.3
82
31
James MalatestaCBJ · L13 sample
25.2
11.6
13.6
79.2
1.7
249.9
31.4
30.0
82
32
William CarrierCAR · L1.38×
20.2
7.8
12.3
99.8
0.1
249.5
26.1
25.7
82
33
Vasily PodkolzinEDM · R1.15×
33.3
15.3
18.1
124.2
1.7
242.6
48.7
57.7
82
34
Michael Brandsegg-NygårdDET · R14 sample
8.0
0.9
7.0
118.0
0.5
241.8
20.9
13.6
82
35
Jeffrey VielTBL · L1.12×
19.2
7.0
12.2
109.7
0.1
240.6
34.8
144.0
82
36
Adam ErneDAL · L1.24×
15.5
9.8
5.8
79.4
0.1
240.5
39.6
33.1
82
37
Emil HeinemanNYI · L1.06×
28.6
19.3
9.3
146.3
4.6
240.4
48.2
19.9
82
38
Ross JohnstonSTL · L1.08×
13.5
3.0
10.5
40.7
0.1
239.6
27.6
136.6
82
39
Cole SmithCHI · R1.53×
17.5
8.6
8.9
84.5
0.1
239.5
29.3
66.0
82
40
Jonah GadjovichFLA · L1.34×
13.0
5.9
7.1
71.6
0.1
237.8
35.8
132.4
82
41
Carl GrundstromPHI · R1.08×
20.1
11.7
8.4
116.6
0.4
237.1
32.0
31.9
82
42
Zachary L'HeureuxCOL · L0.94×
18.6
9.6
9.0
104.4
2.3
236.3
40.8
76.2
82
43
Simon BenoitPHI · D1.10×
8.3
1.0
7.3
64.9
0.1
232.7
129.0
54.5
82
44
Arber XhekajMTL · D1.27×
8.4
2.5
5.9
67.7
0.3
229.2
61.3
147.1
82
45
Mark KastelicBOS · C1.10×
19.6
9.6
10.0
94.8
0.6
229.0
57.5
132.8
82
46
Tom WilsonWSH · R1.16×
63.6
31.3
32.3
174.6
14.7
228.7
67.3
126.9
82
47
Samuel HeleniusLAK · C1.10×
12.8
6.8
6.0
55.9
0.1
228.1
26.5
73.4
82
48
Tye KartyeNYR · L1.21×
24.2
10.0
14.2
80.2
0.1
227.4
44.7
48.7
82
49
Hayden HodgsonOTT · R19 sample
4.2
1.5
2.7
47.3
0.7
226.2
9.5
96.3
82
50
Nikita OkhotiukCGY · D1.26×
15.6
3.2
12.4
82.5
0.5
225.8
116.0
67.8
82

The × badge is game-to-game variance against a random process at the same rate — under 1.00 steadier, over 1.00 streakier. Split-half reliability 0.20. Measured 2026-08-21. The nightly job has not refreshed this since — it is the last completed measurement, not a current one.