Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 267 game sample- PTS
- 39.5
- SOG
- 170.0
- G
- 22.1
- A
- 17.5
- PPP
- 8.1
- HIT
- 395.2
- BLK
- 32.9
- PIM
- 49.7
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 267 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 267 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 267 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.48
- G
- 0.27
- A
- 0.21
- SOG
- 2.08
- PPP
- 0.10
- HIT
- 4.85
- BLK
- 0.40
- PIM
- 0.61
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 72 | 23 | 13 | 36 | 0.50 | 172 | 17:16 |
| 2024-25 | 78 | 19 | 21 | 40 | 0.51 | 141 | 14:53 |
| 2023-24 | 68 | 10 | 17 | 27 | 0.40 | 110 | 12:10 |
| 2022-23 | 32 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 0.41 | 57 | 13:35 |
| 2021-22 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.18 | 9 | 8:34 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | 4 | 11:58 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ WPG | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:05 |
| Apr 15 | @ CHI | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18:17 |
| Apr 13 | @ NSH | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16:33 |
| Apr 11 | vs VAN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:26 |
| Apr 9 | @ ANA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 18:39 |
| Apr 8 | vs EDM | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18:01 |
| Apr 6 | vs CHI | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13:15 |
| Apr 4 | vs NSH | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13:00 |
| Apr 2 | vs TOR | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:05 |
| Apr 1 | vs ANA | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15:04 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19.3 | 23 | plus 3.7 goals above expected | 71 | 279 |
| 2024-25 | 13.6 | 19 | plus 5.4 goals above expected | 71 | 215 |
| 2023-24 | 9.8 | 10 | plus 0.2 goals above expected | 58 | 165 |
| 2022-23 | 6.5 | 7 | plus 0.6 goals above expected | 28 | 79 |
| 2021-22 | 0.8 | 1 | plus 0.2 goals above expected | 7 | 10 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 15 goals, 8 assists, 23 points | 7 goals, 5 assists, 12 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 18 goals, 18 assists, 36 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 10 goals, 17 assists, 27 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 6 goals, 5 assists, 11 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
279 attempts · 23 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.