Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 276 game sample- PTS
- 31.0
- SOG
- 113.4
- G
- 17.0
- A
- 13.9
- PPP
- 0.1
- HIT
- 279.8
- BLK
- 65.0
- PIM
- 130.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 276 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 276 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 276 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.38
- G
- 0.21
- A
- 0.17
- SOG
- 1.38
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 3.43
- BLK
- 0.79
- PIM
- 1.60
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 61 | 15 | 11 | 26 | 0.43 | 93 | 14:14 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 18 | 14 | 32 | 0.39 | 111 | 14:28 |
| 2023-24 | 54 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 0.22 | 55 | 11:17 |
| 2022-23 | 66 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 0.23 | 75 | 11:38 |
| 2021-22 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 5 | 10:06 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 8:26 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29 | vs BOS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3:06 |
| Mar 28 | vs SJS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15:40 |
| Mar 26 | @ MTL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:47 |
| Mar 24 | @ PHI | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 16:44 |
| Mar 22 | @ NYI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12:27 |
| Mar 21 | vs SEA | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14:14 |
| Mar 19 | vs NYR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:59 |
| Mar 17 | vs CAR | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 11:27 |
| Mar 14 | @ PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14:25 |
| Mar 12 | @ FLA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:05 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Mar 3 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 15.0 | 15 | plus 0.0 goals above expected | 54 | 152 |
| 2024-25 | 11.9 | 18 | plus 6.1 goals above expected | 65 | 153 |
| 2023-24 | 6.7 | 5 | minus 1.7 goals above expected | 42 | 79 |
| 2022-23 | 7.5 | 5 | minus 2.5 goals above expected | 51 | 108 |
| 2021-22 | 0.4 | 0 | minus 0.4 goals above expected | 6 | 8 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 15 goals, 11 assists, 26 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 17 goals, 13 assists, 30 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 4 goals, 7 assists, 11 points | 0-0-0 | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 5 goals, 10 assists, 15 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
152 attempts · 15 goals · 2025-26Markets · Mar 3
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.