Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 331 game sample- PTS
- 33.3
- SOG
- 124.2
- G
- 15.3
- A
- 18.1
- PPP
- 1.7
- HIT
- 242.6
- BLK
- 48.7
- PIM
- 57.7
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 331 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 331 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 331 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.41
- G
- 0.19
- A
- 0.22
- SOG
- 1.51
- PPP
- 0.02
- HIT
- 2.97
- BLK
- 0.59
- PIM
- 0.70
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 19 | 18 | 37 | 0.45 | 139 | 15:23 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 8 | 16 | 24 | 0.29 | 114 | 13:13 |
| 2023-24 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 20 | 10:49 |
| 2022-23 | 39 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0.18 | 41 | 11:50 |
| 2021-22 | 79 | 14 | 12 | 26 | 0.33 | 115 | 12:47 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1.00 | 12 | 16:17 |
| 2024-25 | 22 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 0.45 | 18 | 11:02 |
| 2023-24 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 8:32 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30 | @ ANAPO | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18:46 |
| Apr 28 | vs ANAPO | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 12:34 |
| Apr 26 | @ ANAPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:10 |
| Apr 24 | @ ANAPO | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14:52 |
| Apr 22 | vs ANAPO | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16:14 |
| Apr 20 | vs ANAPO | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 18:04 |
| Apr 16 | vs VAN | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:02 |
| Apr 13 | vs COL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 19:15 |
| Apr 11 | @ LAK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 18:27 |
| Apr 8 | @ SJS | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 16:48 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 8 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 17.7 | 19 | plus 1.3 goals above expected | 77 | 186 |
| 2024-25 | 14.5 | 8 | minus 6.5 goals above expected | 70 | 170 |
| 2023-24 | 2.0 | 0 | minus 2.0 goals above expected | 18 | 30 |
| 2022-23 | 4.7 | 4 | minus 0.7 goals above expected | 31 | 63 |
| 2021-22 | 12.0 | 14 | plus 2.0 goals above expected | 61 | 157 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 18 goals, 16 assists, 34 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 8 goals, 16 assists, 24 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 4 goals, 3 assists, 7 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 12 goals, 11 assists, 23 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
186 attempts · 19 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 8
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.