Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 384 game sample- PTS
- 18.4
- SOG
- 96.2
- G
- 2.9
- A
- 15.5
- PPP
- 0.7
- HIT
- 267.7
- BLK
- 152.3
- PIM
- 101.5
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 384 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 384 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 384 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.22
- G
- 0.03
- A
- 0.19
- SOG
- 1.17
- PPP
- 0.01
- HIT
- 3.28
- BLK
- 1.87
- PIM
- 1.24
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 56 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 0.23 | 63 | 16:11 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 1 | 15 | 16 | 0.20 | 89 | 19:52 |
| 2023-24 | 66 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 0.27 | 88 | 19:31 |
| 2022-23 | 72 | 2 | 15 | 17 | 0.24 | 110 | 17:22 |
| 2021-22 | 77 | 3 | 13 | 16 | 0.21 | 100 | 18:01 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 9:40 |
| 2022-23 | 21 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.14 | 17 | 17:01 |
| 2021-22 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.20 | 11 | 14:38 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 20 | @ EDMPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9:40 |
| Apr 12 | vs VAN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 10:05 |
| Mar 30 | vs TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 7:05 |
| Mar 26 | @ CGY | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 8:33 |
| Mar 24 | @ VAN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:00 |
| Mar 12 | @ TOR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 10:09 |
| Mar 10 | @ WPG | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:14 |
| Mar 8 | vs STL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12:44 |
| Mar 6 | vs MTL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 19:11 |
| Mar 4 | vs NYI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 19:56 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Mar 1 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 1.8 | 2 | plus 0.2 goals above expected | 45 | 101 |
| 2024-25 | 2.9 | 1 | minus 1.9 goals above expected | 66 | 148 |
| 2023-24 | 2.5 | 6 | plus 3.5 goals above expected | 59 | 144 |
| 2022-23 | 3.4 | 2 | minus 1.4 goals above expected | 67 | 163 |
| 2021-22 | 3.8 | 3 | minus 0.8 goals above expected | 67 | 144 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 2 goals, 10 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 1 goal, 15 assists, 16 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 6 goals, 11 assists, 17 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 2 goals, 15 assists, 17 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 2 goals, 13 assists, 15 points | 0-0-0 | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
Shot locations
101 attempts · 2 goals · 2025-26Markets · Mar 1
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.