Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 353 game sample- PTS
- 63.6
- SOG
- 174.6
- G
- 31.3
- A
- 32.3
- PPP
- 14.7
- HIT
- 228.7
- BLK
- 67.3
- PIM
- 126.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 353 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 353 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 353 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.78
- G
- 0.38
- A
- 0.39
- SOG
- 2.13
- PPP
- 0.18
- HIT
- 2.80
- BLK
- 0.82
- PIM
- 1.55
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 72 | 30 | 32 | 62 | 0.86 | 153 | 19:28 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 33 | 32 | 65 | 0.80 | 169 | 18:44 |
| 2023-24 | 74 | 18 | 17 | 35 | 0.47 | 169 | 18:06 |
| 2022-23 | 33 | 13 | 9 | 22 | 0.67 | 82 | 17:37 |
| 2021-22 | 78 | 24 | 28 | 52 | 0.67 | 151 | 18:35 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0.70 | 19 | 20:01 |
| 2023-24 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.75 | 10 | 19:01 |
| 2021-22 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.00 | 2 | 1:31 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | @ CBJ | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:39 |
| Apr 12 | vs PIT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 18:14 |
| Apr 11 | @ PIT | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:44 |
| Apr 8 | @ TOR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:51 |
| Apr 5 | @ NYR | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 19:13 |
| Apr 4 | vs BUF | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:19 |
| Apr 2 | @ NJD | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:06 |
| Mar 31 | vs PHI | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:57 |
| Mar 28 | @ VGK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 24:11 |
| Mar 26 | @ UTA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 11:41 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 8 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 27.8 | 30 | plus 2.2 goals above expected | 70 | 236 |
| 2024-25 | 26.6 | 33 | plus 6.4 goals above expected | 79 | 264 |
| 2023-24 | 22.0 | 18 | minus 4.0 goals above expected | 71 | 242 |
| 2022-23 | 9.4 | 13 | plus 3.6 goals above expected | 31 | 110 |
| 2021-22 | 21.1 | 24 | plus 2.9 goals above expected | 75 | 226 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 22 goals, 27 assists, 49 points | 7 goals, 5 assists, 12 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 20 goals, 23 assists, 43 points | 11 goals, 6 assists, 17 points | 2 goals, 3 assists, 5 points |
| 2023-24 | 11 goals, 12 assists, 23 points | 5 goals, 5 assists, 10 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2022-23 | 9 goals, 8 assists, 17 points | 4 goals, 1 assist, 5 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 18 goals, 21 assists, 39 points | 4 goals, 6 assists, 10 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
Shot locations
236 attempts · 30 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 8
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.