Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 318 game sample- PTS
- 27.4
- SOG
- 100.1
- G
- 10.8
- A
- 16.6
- PPP
- 0.9
- HIT
- 287.3
- BLK
- 48.2
- PIM
- 80.7
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 318 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 318 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 318 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.33
- G
- 0.13
- A
- 0.20
- SOG
- 1.22
- PPP
- 0.01
- HIT
- 3.52
- BLK
- 0.59
- PIM
- 0.99
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 75 | 9 | 16 | 25 | 0.33 | 106 | 13:51 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 13 | 14 | 27 | 0.33 | 90 | 13:34 |
| 2023-24 | 67 | 8 | 18 | 26 | 0.39 | 56 | 12:37 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 12 | 14 | 26 | 0.32 | 85 | 13:59 |
| 2021-22 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.30 | 13 | 14:11 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 9:24 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | vs VGKPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:42 |
| Apr 19 | @ VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:06 |
| Apr 2 | @ SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9:00 |
| Mar 28 | @ LAK | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14:04 |
| Mar 26 | vs WSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 10:05 |
| Mar 24 | vs EDM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16:30 |
| Mar 22 | vs LAK | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 14:31 |
| Mar 20 | vs ANA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10:39 |
| Mar 19 | @ VGK | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 13:23 |
| Mar 16 | @ DAL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13:23 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 17.3 | 9 | minus 8.3 goals above expected | 63 | 168 |
| 2024-25 | 12.8 | 13 | plus 0.2 goals above expected | 68 | 145 |
| 2023-24 | 9.1 | 8 | minus 1.1 goals above expected | 46 | 88 |
| 2022-23 | 12.1 | 12 | minus 0.1 goals above expected | 55 | 119 |
| 2021-22 | 1.4 | 2 | plus 0.6 goals above expected | 7 | 21 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8 goals, 15 assists, 23 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 12 goals, 12 assists, 24 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 8 goals, 18 assists, 26 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 12 goals, 14 assists, 26 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
168 attempts · 9 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.