Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 374 game sample- PTS
- 21.4
- SOG
- 85.5
- G
- 8.2
- A
- 13.3
- PPP
- 1.0
- HIT
- 267.2
- BLK
- 56.0
- PIM
- 88.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 374 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 374 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 374 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.26
- G
- 0.10
- A
- 0.16
- SOG
- 1.04
- PPP
- 0.01
- HIT
- 3.27
- BLK
- 0.68
- PIM
- 1.08
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 77 | 6 | 16 | 22 | 0.29 | 78 | 12:38 |
| 2024-25 | 67 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 0.19 | 56 | 11:01 |
| 2023-24 | 55 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 0.25 | 59 | 12:01 |
| 2022-23 | 77 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 0.23 | 107 | 14:04 |
| 2021-22 | 81 | 24 | 17 | 41 | 0.51 | 124 | 15:59 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | 9 | 11:25 |
| 2023-24 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.25 | 3 | 8:44 |
| 2022-23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3 | 13:22 |
| 2021-22 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.25 | 5 | 17:07 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | vs BUFPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:48 |
| Apr 28 | @ BUFPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 11:25 |
| Apr 26 | vs BUFPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 |
| Apr 23 | vs BUFPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 9:10 |
| Apr 21 | @ BUFPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12:23 |
| Apr 19 | @ BUFPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8:21 |
| Apr 14 | vs NJD | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 15:06 |
| Apr 11 | vs TBL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11:25 |
| Apr 7 | @ CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:54 |
| Apr 5 | @ PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9:52 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11.5 | 6 | minus 5.5 goals above expected | 59 | 124 |
| 2024-25 | 7.9 | 7 | minus 0.9 goals above expected | 50 | 98 |
| 2023-24 | 7.4 | 7 | minus 0.4 goals above expected | 46 | 88 |
| 2022-23 | 12.7 | 6 | minus 6.7 goals above expected | 60 | 154 |
| 2021-22 | 16.0 | 24 | plus 8.0 goals above expected | 70 | 180 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 goals, 15 assists, 21 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 7 goals, 6 assists, 13 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 6 goals, 6 assists, 12 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 6 goals, 11 assists, 17 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 21 goals, 16 assists, 37 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
Shot locations
124 attempts · 6 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.