Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 384 game sample- PTS
- 72.6
- SOG
- 319.5
- G
- 31.9
- A
- 40.8
- PPP
- 25.2
- HIT
- 250.4
- BLK
- 30.0
- PIM
- 120.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 384 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 384 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 384 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.89
- G
- 0.39
- A
- 0.50
- SOG
- 3.91
- PPP
- 0.31
- HIT
- 3.07
- BLK
- 0.36
- PIM
- 1.48
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 60 | 22 | 37 | 59 | 0.98 | 221 | 16:58 |
| 2024-25 | 72 | 29 | 26 | 55 | 0.76 | 296 | 18:14 |
| 2023-24 | 81 | 37 | 37 | 74 | 0.91 | 357 | 19:08 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 35 | 48 | 83 | 1.01 | 347 | 18:38 |
| 2021-22 | 79 | 30 | 37 | 67 | 0.85 | 288 | 18:48 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 11 | 21:31 |
| 2024-25 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1.17 | 22 | 18:17 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 25 | vs CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20:37 |
| Apr 23 | vs CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 19:27 |
| Apr 20 | @ CARPO | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 28:17 |
| Apr 18 | @ CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 17:41 |
| Apr 11 | @ NYI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 10:25 |
| Apr 9 | vs FLA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:13 |
| Apr 7 | vs TBL | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:42 |
| Apr 5 | vs CAR | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15:35 |
| Apr 4 | vs MIN | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:59 |
| Apr 2 | vs BUF | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15:55 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 11 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 30.5 | 22 | minus 8.5 goals above expected | 59 | 306 |
| 2024-25 | 34.3 | 29 | minus 5.3 goals above expected | 71 | 421 |
| 2023-24 | 37.6 | 37 | minus 0.6 goals above expected | 81 | 484 |
| 2022-23 | 47.4 | 35 | minus 12.4 goals above expected | 82 | 486 |
| 2021-22 | 35.4 | 30 | minus 5.4 goals above expected | 79 | 373 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16 goals, 22 assists, 38 points | 5 goals, 15 assists, 20 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 15 goals, 17 assists, 32 points | 14 goals, 9 assists, 23 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 25 goals, 27 assists, 52 points | 12 goals, 10 assists, 22 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 24 goals, 30 assists, 54 points | 11 goals, 18 assists, 29 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 21 goals, 29 assists, 50 points | 9 goals, 8 assists, 17 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
306 attempts · 22 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 11
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.