Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 265 game sample- PTS
- 36.8
- SOG
- 148.3
- G
- 18.6
- A
- 18.2
- PPP
- 5.6
- HIT
- 291.3
- BLK
- 56.1
- PIM
- 57.2
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 265 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 265 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 265 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.45
- G
- 0.23
- A
- 0.22
- SOG
- 1.81
- PPP
- 0.07
- HIT
- 3.57
- BLK
- 0.68
- PIM
- 0.70
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 20 | 18 | 38 | 0.46 | 157 | 16:52 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 20 | 25 | 45 | 0.55 | 152 | 15:05 |
| 2023-24 | 81 | 13 | 8 | 21 | 0.26 | 119 | 11:07 |
| 2022-23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 6:58 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.13 | 18 | 11:17 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ TBL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 14:39 |
| Apr 13 | @ FLA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 15:32 |
| Apr 11 | @ DAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14:23 |
| Apr 8 | vs BUF | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 15:46 |
| Apr 5 | vs WSH | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 12:58 |
| Apr 4 | vs DET | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12:05 |
| Apr 2 | vs MTL | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 17:23 |
| Mar 31 | vs NJD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 16:27 |
| Mar 29 | vs FLA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14:08 |
| Mar 27 | vs CHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 15:31 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 8 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 24.9 | 20 | minus 4.9 goals above expected | 74 | 248 |
| 2024-25 | 19.9 | 20 | plus 0.1 goals above expected | 77 | 223 |
| 2023-24 | 12.7 | 13 | plus 0.3 goals above expected | 72 | 157 |
| 2022-23 | 0.1 | 0 | minus 0.1 goals above expected | 2 | 3 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16 goals, 14 assists, 30 points | 4 goals, 4 assists, 8 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 16 goals, 23 assists, 39 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
| 2023-24 | 12 goals, 7 assists, 19 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
248 attempts · 20 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 8
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.