Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 420 game sample- PTS
- 20.9
- SOG
- 99.3
- G
- 7.6
- A
- 13.3
- PPP
- 0.2
- HIT
- 336.9
- BLK
- 38.2
- PIM
- 44.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 420 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 420 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 420 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.25
- G
- 0.09
- A
- 0.16
- SOG
- 1.21
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 4.13
- BLK
- 0.46
- PIM
- 0.54
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 6 | 17 | 23 | 0.28 | 98 | 13:17 |
| 2024-25 | 76 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 0.20 | 85 | 12:31 |
| 2023-24 | 76 | 12 | 5 | 17 | 0.22 | 116 | 14:34 |
| 2022-23 | 77 | 12 | 12 | 24 | 0.31 | 140 | 15:09 |
| 2021-22 | 80 | 17 | 7 | 24 | 0.30 | 136 | 14:40 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.22 | 4 | 11:05 |
| 2024-25 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.33 | 3 | 9:31 |
| 2023-24 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 8 | 10:35 |
| 2021-22 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.75 | 10 | 15:13 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13 | @ COLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12:34 |
| May 11 | vs COLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 12:22 |
| May 9 | vs COLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11:14 |
| May 5 | @ COLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12:57 |
| May 3 | @ COLPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11:40 |
| Apr 30 | vs DALPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10:18 |
| Apr 28 | @ DALPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 12:04 |
| Apr 20 | @ DALPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3:02 |
| Apr 18 | @ DALPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 13:36 |
| Apr 14 | vs ANA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 15:49 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13.2 | 6 | minus 7.2 goals above expected | 73 | 158 |
| 2024-25 | 9.9 | 7 | minus 2.9 goals above expected | 59 | 141 |
| 2023-24 | 15.3 | 12 | minus 3.3 goals above expected | 64 | 185 |
| 2022-23 | 15.9 | 12 | minus 3.9 goals above expected | 71 | 206 |
| 2021-22 | 16.1 | 17 | plus 0.9 goals above expected | 68 | 191 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 goals, 17 assists, 23 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 5 goals, 8 assists, 13 points | 0-0-0 | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 12 goals, 4 assists, 16 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 10 goals, 10 assists, 20 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 17 goals, 7 assists, 24 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
158 attempts · 6 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.