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Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

Projections

Every headline stat per skater — over a full regular season, ranked league-wide by goals.

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Each player's recency-weighted per-game rate — from 5 seasons of real games, recent games weighted more (the weighting is backtested) — × their team's scheduled games in the window. Computed overnight, then only read — this page never recalculates a projection. Availability is not projected: Proj GP is the team's schedule, not a forecast of how many games the player dresses for, and injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled.

How well does projection ordering hold? View the ordering study

897 skaters · sorted by goals

#
Skater
PTS
G
A
SOG
PPP
HIT
BLK
PIM
Proj GP
1
Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
124.5
47.6
76.9
359.0
36.0
61.1
47.1
40.2
82
2
Leon DraisaitlEDM · C
120.3
47.6
72.6
241.1
46.6
51.4
29.2
39.4
82
3
Kirill KaprizovMIN · L
99.3
47.0
52.2
280.9
34.3
60.8
37.7
32.9
82
4
Auston MatthewsTOR · C
86.0
42.9
43.1
326.8
23.4
78.2
105.4
23.4
82
5
Cole CaufieldMTL · R
75.9
41.6
34.2
255.3
26.2
61.5
22.4
12.4
82
6
Tage ThompsonBUF · C
80.6
41.0
39.6
275.1
23.5
85.3
41.8
46.1
82
7
Connor McDavidEDM · C
132.8
40.9
91.9
289.9
48.9
66.1
34.5
39.5
82
8
Nikita KucherovTBL · R
129.3
40.5
88.8
265.7
43.9
41.8
31.6
49.2
82
9
Jason RobertsonDAL · L
88.5
40.3
48.2
263.0
33.9
58.7
37.0
24.9
82
10
Macklin CelebriniSJS · C
102.1
40.1
62.0
282.6
30.6
50.5
55.8
40.6
82
11
Sam ReinhartFLA · C
80.2
40.0
40.2
221.0
29.4
92.4
61.8
21.4
82
12
William NylanderTOR · R
92.6
40.0
52.6
240.4
28.5
20.5
31.2
23.4
82
13
Zach HymanEDM · L
66.1
39.8
26.3
240.2
17.8
119.9
29.6
41.6
82
14
Kyle ConnorWPG · L
91.2
39.4
51.9
274.7
22.9
32.8
27.8
17.1
82
15
Jake GuentzelTBL · C
87.0
38.6
48.3
234.7
29.1
45.1
43.0
50.7
82
16
David PastrnakBOS · R
104.4
38.5
65.9
311.9
30.6
84.4
30.9
62.6
82
17
Matt BoldyMIN · L
82.8
38.4
44.3
272.7
27.0
65.1
58.3
39.4
82
18
Alex OvechkinWSH · L
71.5
38.4
33.1
268.1
23.1
149.9
19.2
25.6
82
19
Filip ForsbergNSH · L
77.9
38.3
39.6
268.6
26.6
135.3
40.4
37.6
82
20
Wyatt JohnstonDAL · C
73.8
37.9
35.9
204.8
30.3
59.9
48.3
26.6
82
21
Steven StamkosNSH · C
67.4
37.7
29.7
209.8
27.3
86.6
41.2
51.6
82
22
Alex DeBrincatDET · R
77.1
37.6
39.5
266.5
24.4
47.3
38.2
25.3
82
23
Dylan GuentherUTA · R
71.6
37.2
34.4
246.2
26.2
72.1
35.6
29.0
82
24
Brandon HagelTBL · L
81.4
37.1
44.4
221.7
11.6
61.6
49.4
68.3
82
25
Jack HughesNJD · C
99.0
36.8
62.1
314.2
33.0
9.2
39.0
15.7
82
26
Mark ScheifeleWPG · C
92.5
36.0
56.4
177.9
22.7
54.1
49.9
51.8
82
27
Adrian KempeLAK · R
74.0
35.9
38.1
237.1
17.5
121.7
38.6
55.0
82
28
Pavel DorofeyevNYR · R
57.2
35.6
21.6
229.2
23.1
27.5
31.8
22.1
82
29
Dylan LarkinDET · C
74.5
35.2
39.2
248.4
27.0
50.5
35.6
48.3
82
30
Cutter GauthierANA · L
65.3
34.7
30.6
265.3
18.9
85.1
31.1
26.8
82
31
Sidney CrosbyPIT · C
90.5
34.5
55.9
223.4
27.1
77.0
39.9
46.1
82
32
Bo HorvatNYI · C
65.1
34.0
31.2
257.1
15.7
74.8
44.9
35.4
82
33
Brayden PointTBL · C
73.4
33.9
39.5
190.8
22.6
24.6
38.1
16.2
82
34
Brad MarchandFLA · L
74.0
33.9
40.1
213.4
25.3
88.2
33.2
79.7
82
35
Artemi PanarinLAK · L
91.9
33.7
58.3
237.4
29.5
17.8
15.3
20.9
82
36
Mikko RantanenDAL · R
97.2
33.4
63.8
215.3
39.4
65.1
48.5
86.3
82
37
John TavaresTOR · C
71.8
33.2
38.5
220.3
21.7
98.1
36.3
35.4
82
38
Matthew TkachukFLA · L
90.6
32.7
57.9
248.5
33.6
125.0
26.0
109.5
82
39
Alex TuchWSH · R
66.5
32.7
33.8
210.8
10.1
91.1
96.2
52.6
82
40
Morgan GeekieBOS · C
58.8
32.5
26.4
162.8
16.1
118.0
36.5
26.9
82
41
Bryan RustPIT · R
70.4
32.3
38.1
217.8
22.8
57.9
69.7
28.1
82
42
Mark StoneVGK · R
84.5
32.0
52.5
173.6
30.3
64.3
58.5
20.3
82
43
Seth JarvisCAR · R
68.8
32.0
36.9
224.5
20.5
114.8
46.6
21.0
82
44
Brady TkachukFLA · L
72.6
31.9
40.8
319.5
25.2
250.4
30.0
120.9
82
45
Tom WilsonWSH · R
63.6
31.3
32.3
174.6
14.7
228.7
67.3
126.9
82
46
Nico HischierNJD · C
70.3
31.3
39.0
212.0
23.6
56.7
62.0
23.6
82
47
Drake BathersonOTT · R
69.7
30.7
39.1
185.2
29.0
137.8
27.3
37.6
82
48
Martin NecasCOL · C
87.0
30.5
56.5
213.1
24.6
85.6
25.6
28.7
82
49
Connor BedardCHI · C
79.6
30.2
49.4
241.3
26.2
44.4
34.0
59.3
82
50
Logan CooleyUTA · C
62.0
30.1
31.9
163.5
16.8
82.2
36.2
45.5
82

No consistency figure for goals: it did not clear the nightly split-half-vs-Poisson gate. The gate withholds a figure both when a stat is measurably no better than chance and when the evidence is too split to call, and those are not separable from here — so read this as no published measure, not as a finding that goals is inconsistent. Sort by another stat to see it where it holds. Measured 2026-08-21. The nightly job has not refreshed this since — it is the last completed measurement, not a current one.