Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 390 game sample- PTS
- 73.8
- SOG
- 204.8
- G
- 37.9
- A
- 35.9
- PPP
- 30.3
- HIT
- 59.9
- BLK
- 48.3
- PIM
- 26.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 390 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 390 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 390 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.90
- G
- 0.46
- A
- 0.44
- SOG
- 2.50
- PPP
- 0.37
- HIT
- 0.73
- BLK
- 0.59
- PIM
- 0.32
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 45 | 41 | 86 | 1.05 | 206 | 20:07 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 33 | 38 | 71 | 0.87 | 202 | 18:56 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 32 | 33 | 65 | 0.79 | 216 | 17:00 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 24 | 17 | 41 | 0.50 | 160 | 15:29 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1.00 | 20 | 23:50 |
| 2024-25 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 0.56 | 36 | 19:22 |
| 2023-24 | 19 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 0.84 | 57 | 20:38 |
| 2022-23 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0.32 | 55 | 16:59 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30 | @ MINPO | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 23:26 |
| Apr 28 | vs MINPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:47 |
| Apr 25 | @ MINPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 24:30 |
| Apr 22 | @ MINPO | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 30:12 |
| Apr 20 | vs MINPO | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:21 |
| Apr 18 | vs MINPO | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:44 |
| Apr 15 | @ BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:11 |
| Apr 13 | @ TOR | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:24 |
| Apr 11 | vs NYR | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:34 |
| Apr 9 | vs MIN | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16:53 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 37.3 | 45 | plus 7.7 goals above expected | 81 | 302 |
| 2024-25 | 31.8 | 33 | plus 1.2 goals above expected | 80 | 298 |
| 2023-24 | 26.4 | 32 | plus 5.6 goals above expected | 81 | 308 |
| 2022-23 | 19.0 | 24 | plus 5.0 goals above expected | 73 | 207 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 18 goals, 26 assists, 44 points | 27 goals, 15 assists, 42 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 19 goals, 24 assists, 43 points | 11 goals, 14 assists, 25 points | 3 goals, 0 assists, 3 points |
| 2023-24 | 26 goals, 26 assists, 52 points | 3 goals, 7 assists, 10 points | 3 goals, 0 assists, 3 points |
| 2022-23 | 21 goals, 13 assists, 34 points | 3 goals, 4 assists, 7 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
302 attempts · 45 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.