Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 381 game sample- PTS
- 69.7
- SOG
- 185.2
- G
- 30.7
- A
- 39.1
- PPP
- 29.0
- HIT
- 137.8
- BLK
- 27.3
- PIM
- 37.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 381 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 381 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 381 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.85
- G
- 0.38
- A
- 0.48
- SOG
- 2.26
- PPP
- 0.35
- HIT
- 1.68
- BLK
- 0.33
- PIM
- 0.46
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 79 | 33 | 38 | 71 | 0.90 | 167 | 17:21 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 26 | 42 | 68 | 0.83 | 192 | 18:08 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 28 | 38 | 66 | 0.80 | 196 | 18:10 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 22 | 40 | 62 | 0.76 | 249 | 18:37 |
| 2021-22 | 46 | 17 | 27 | 44 | 0.96 | 110 | 18:56 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1.00 | 9 | 21:16 |
| 2024-25 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.33 | 9 | 17:29 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 25 | vs CARPO | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 20:35 |
| Apr 23 | vs CARPO | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 19:40 |
| Apr 20 | @ CARPO | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 27:33 |
| Apr 18 | @ CARPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:13 |
| Apr 15 | vs TOR | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:08 |
| Apr 12 | @ NJD | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16:53 |
| Apr 11 | @ NYI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 17:44 |
| Apr 9 | vs FLA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13:46 |
| Apr 7 | vs TBL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:17 |
| Apr 5 | vs CAR | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:43 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 11 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 25.7 | 33 | plus 7.3 goals above expected | 76 | 280 |
| 2024-25 | 23.0 | 26 | plus 3.0 goals above expected | 80 | 283 |
| 2023-24 | 23.8 | 28 | plus 4.2 goals above expected | 81 | 295 |
| 2022-23 | 32.0 | 22 | minus 10.0 goals above expected | 82 | 362 |
| 2021-22 | 12.5 | 17 | plus 4.5 goals above expected | 42 | 149 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 20 goals, 21 assists, 41 points | 13 goals, 17 assists, 30 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 13 goals, 24 assists, 37 points | 13 goals, 18 assists, 31 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 21 goals, 23 assists, 44 points | 7 goals, 15 assists, 22 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 8 goals, 25 assists, 33 points | 14 goals, 15 assists, 29 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 14 goals, 16 assists, 30 points | 3 goals, 11 assists, 14 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
280 attempts · 33 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 11
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.