Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 219 game sample- PTS
- 79.6
- SOG
- 241.3
- G
- 30.2
- A
- 49.4
- PPP
- 26.2
- HIT
- 44.4
- BLK
- 34.0
- PIM
- 59.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 219 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 219 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 219 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.97
- G
- 0.37
- A
- 0.60
- SOG
- 2.95
- PPP
- 0.32
- HIT
- 0.54
- BLK
- 0.41
- PIM
- 0.72
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 69 | 30 | 45 | 75 | 1.09 | 226 | 20:52 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 23 | 44 | 67 | 0.82 | 195 | 20:17 |
| 2023-24 | 68 | 22 | 39 | 61 | 0.90 | 206 | 19:47 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | vs SJS | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 17:51 |
| Apr 13 | vs BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 22:31 |
| Apr 11 | vs STL | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:01 |
| Apr 9 | vs CAR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 20:22 |
| Apr 6 | @ SJS | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21:13 |
| Apr 4 | @ SEA | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:41 |
| Apr 2 | @ EDM | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:14 |
| Mar 31 | vs WPG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:57 |
| Mar 29 | @ NJD | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20:40 |
| Mar 27 | @ NYR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:32 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 29.9 | 30 | plus 0.1 goals above expected | 67 | 338 |
| 2024-25 | 21.6 | 23 | plus 1.4 goals above expected | 78 | 288 |
| 2023-24 | 23.9 | 22 | minus 1.9 goals above expected | 65 | 299 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 23 goals, 31 assists, 54 points | 7 goals, 14 assists, 21 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 12 goals, 26 assists, 38 points | 11 goals, 18 assists, 29 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 18 goals, 22 assists, 40 points | 4 goals, 17 assists, 21 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
338 attempts · 30 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.