Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 233 game sample- PTS
- 71.6
- SOG
- 246.2
- G
- 37.2
- A
- 34.4
- PPP
- 26.2
- HIT
- 72.1
- BLK
- 35.6
- PIM
- 29.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 233 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 233 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 233 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.88
- G
- 0.46
- A
- 0.42
- SOG
- 3.01
- PPP
- 0.32
- HIT
- 0.88
- BLK
- 0.43
- PIM
- 0.35
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 79 | 40 | 33 | 73 | 0.92 | 242 | 17:24 |
| 2024-25 | 70 | 27 | 33 | 60 | 0.86 | 204 | 17:00 |
| 2023-24 | 45 | 18 | 17 | 35 | 0.78 | 121 | 16:17 |
| 2022-23 | 33 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 0.45 | 53 | 13:07 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.83 | 27 | 20:47 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | vs VGKPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:11 |
| Apr 29 | @ VGKPO | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 27:34 |
| Apr 27 | vs VGKPO | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 24:34 |
| Apr 24 | vs VGKPO | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 17:22 |
| Apr 21 | @ VGKPO | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 19:01 |
| Apr 19 | @ VGKPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:58 |
| Apr 14 | vs WPG | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:22 |
| Apr 12 | @ CGY | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:38 |
| Apr 11 | vs CAR | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:47 |
| Apr 9 | vs NSH | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 17:58 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 32.1 | 40 | plus 7.9 goals above expected | 79 | 407 |
| 2024-25 | 24.6 | 27 | plus 2.4 goals above expected | 70 | 328 |
| 2023-24 | 12.9 | 18 | plus 5.1 goals above expected | 45 | 179 |
| 2022-23 | 5.7 | 6 | plus 0.3 goals above expected | 29 | 74 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 31 goals, 18 assists, 49 points | 9 goals, 15 assists, 24 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 15 goals, 16 assists, 31 points | 12 goals, 17 assists, 29 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 8 goals, 12 assists, 20 points | 9 goals, 4 assists, 13 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2022-23 | 2 goals, 7 assists, 9 points | 4 goals, 2 assists, 6 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
407 attempts · 40 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.