Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 410 game sample- PTS
- 77.1
- SOG
- 266.5
- G
- 37.6
- A
- 39.5
- PPP
- 24.4
- HIT
- 47.3
- BLK
- 38.2
- PIM
- 25.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 410 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 410 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 410 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.94
- G
- 0.46
- A
- 0.48
- SOG
- 3.26
- PPP
- 0.30
- HIT
- 0.57
- BLK
- 0.46
- PIM
- 0.31
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 41 | 44 | 85 | 1.04 | 287 | 18:30 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 39 | 31 | 70 | 0.85 | 244 | 17:52 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 27 | 40 | 67 | 0.82 | 237 | 17:53 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 27 | 39 | 66 | 0.80 | 263 | 19:01 |
| 2021-22 | 82 | 41 | 37 | 78 | 0.95 | 270 | 20:52 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ FLA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:38 |
| Apr 13 | @ TBL | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17:51 |
| Apr 11 | vs NJD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:12 |
| Apr 9 | vs PHI | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:06 |
| Apr 7 | vs CBJ | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:54 |
| Apr 5 | vs MIN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:58 |
| Apr 4 | @ NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:22 |
| Apr 2 | @ PHI | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18:20 |
| Mar 31 | @ PIT | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:26 |
| Mar 28 | vs PHI | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22:36 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 40.3 | 41 | plus 0.7 goals above expected | 81 | 443 |
| 2024-25 | 33.2 | 39 | plus 5.8 goals above expected | 82 | 358 |
| 2023-24 | 27.6 | 27 | minus 0.6 goals above expected | 80 | 350 |
| 2022-23 | 30.2 | 27 | minus 3.2 goals above expected | 82 | 345 |
| 2021-22 | 36.9 | 41 | plus 4.1 goals above expected | 82 | 354 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 26 goals, 36 assists, 62 points | 15 goals, 8 assists, 23 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 26 goals, 15 assists, 41 points | 13 goals, 16 assists, 29 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 17 goals, 32 assists, 49 points | 10 goals, 8 assists, 18 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 16 goals, 20 assists, 36 points | 11 goals, 19 assists, 30 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 27 goals, 23 assists, 50 points | 14 goals, 14 assists, 28 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
443 attempts · 41 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.