Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 428 game sample- PTS
- 104.4
- SOG
- 311.9
- G
- 38.5
- A
- 65.9
- PPP
- 30.6
- HIT
- 84.4
- BLK
- 30.9
- PIM
- 62.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 428 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 428 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 428 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 1.28
- G
- 0.47
- A
- 0.81
- SOG
- 3.82
- PPP
- 0.37
- HIT
- 1.03
- BLK
- 0.37
- PIM
- 0.77
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 77 | 29 | 71 | 100 | 1.30 | 261 | 20:40 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 43 | 63 | 106 | 1.29 | 319 | 20:11 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 47 | 63 | 110 | 1.34 | 382 | 19:56 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 61 | 52 | 113 | 1.38 | 407 | 19:34 |
| 2021-22 | 72 | 40 | 37 | 77 | 1.07 | 312 | 18:37 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1.17 | 22 | 20:58 |
| 2023-24 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0.62 | 41 | 19:39 |
| 2022-23 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0.71 | 34 | 20:33 |
| 2021-22 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0.86 | 39 | 19:27 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | vs BUFPO | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:35 |
| Apr 28 | @ BUFPO | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 25:15 |
| Apr 26 | vs BUFPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 19:15 |
| Apr 23 | vs BUFPO | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:21 |
| Apr 21 | @ BUFPO | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 20:04 |
| Apr 19 | @ BUFPO | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 21:15 |
| Apr 14 | vs NJD | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 17:08 |
| Apr 12 | @ CBJ | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:45 |
| Apr 11 | vs TBL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18:53 |
| Apr 7 | @ CAR | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:09 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 11 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 31.5 | 29 | minus 2.5 goals above expected | 76 | 389 |
| 2024-25 | 33.8 | 43 | plus 9.2 goals above expected | 82 | 443 |
| 2023-24 | 39.8 | 45 | plus 5.3 goals above expected | 82 | 528 |
| 2022-23 | 45.5 | 61 | plus 15.5 goals above expected | 82 | 541 |
| 2021-22 | 32.3 | 40 | plus 7.7 goals above expected | 72 | 438 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 20 goals, 48 assists, 68 points | 9 goals, 23 assists, 32 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 34 goals, 49 assists, 83 points | 9 goals, 14 assists, 23 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 33 goals, 40 assists, 73 points | 12 goals, 23 assists, 35 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 43 goals, 33 assists, 76 points | 18 goals, 19 assists, 37 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 25 goals, 26 assists, 51 points | 15 goals, 11 assists, 26 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
389 attempts · 29 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 11
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.