Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 413 game sample- PTS
- 91.2
- SOG
- 274.7
- G
- 39.4
- A
- 51.9
- PPP
- 22.9
- HIT
- 32.8
- BLK
- 27.8
- PIM
- 17.1
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 413 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 413 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 413 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 1.12
- G
- 0.48
- A
- 0.63
- SOG
- 3.36
- PPP
- 0.28
- HIT
- 0.40
- BLK
- 0.34
- PIM
- 0.21
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 39 | 53 | 92 | 1.12 | 274 | 21:31 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 41 | 56 | 97 | 1.18 | 267 | 20:23 |
| 2023-24 | 65 | 34 | 27 | 61 | 0.94 | 221 | 19:43 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 31 | 49 | 80 | 0.98 | 273 | 20:32 |
| 2021-22 | 79 | 47 | 46 | 93 | 1.18 | 317 | 21:46 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 1.31 | 45 | 22:17 |
| 2023-24 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1.00 | 19 | 20:47 |
| 2022-23 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.80 | 26 | 22:20 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | vs SJS | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:18 |
| Apr 14 | @ UTA | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 20:52 |
| Apr 13 | @ VGK | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21:25 |
| Apr 11 | vs PHI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:31 |
| Apr 9 | @ STL | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:56 |
| Apr 6 | vs SEA | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:30 |
| Apr 4 | @ CBJ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:27 |
| Apr 2 | @ DAL | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:37 |
| Mar 31 | @ CHI | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:07 |
| Mar 28 | @ COL | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:23 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 34.5 | 38 | plus 3.5 goals above expected | 82 | 392 |
| 2024-25 | 31.9 | 41 | plus 9.1 goals above expected | 81 | 358 |
| 2023-24 | 25.4 | 34 | plus 8.6 goals above expected | 65 | 290 |
| 2022-23 | 34.5 | 31 | minus 3.5 goals above expected | 82 | 379 |
| 2021-22 | 39.5 | 47 | plus 7.5 goals above expected | 79 | 395 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 32 goals, 38 assists, 70 points | 5 goals, 14 assists, 19 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 30 goals, 36 assists, 66 points | 9 goals, 20 assists, 29 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 30 goals, 13 assists, 43 points | 4 goals, 14 assists, 18 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 23 goals, 28 assists, 51 points | 8 goals, 21 assists, 29 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 36 goals, 26 assists, 62 points | 8 goals, 20 assists, 28 points | 3 goals, 0 assists, 3 points |
Shot locations
392 attempts · 38 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.