Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 359 game sample- PTS
- 70.4
- SOG
- 217.8
- G
- 32.3
- A
- 38.1
- PPP
- 22.8
- HIT
- 57.9
- BLK
- 69.7
- PIM
- 28.1
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 359 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 359 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 359 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.86
- G
- 0.40
- A
- 0.47
- SOG
- 2.66
- PPP
- 0.28
- HIT
- 0.70
- BLK
- 0.85
- PIM
- 0.34
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 72 | 29 | 36 | 65 | 0.90 | 183 | 19:56 |
| 2024-25 | 71 | 31 | 34 | 65 | 0.92 | 191 | 19:45 |
| 2023-24 | 62 | 28 | 28 | 56 | 0.90 | 196 | 19:35 |
| 2022-23 | 81 | 20 | 26 | 46 | 0.57 | 211 | 17:54 |
| 2021-22 | 60 | 24 | 34 | 58 | 0.97 | 180 | 18:46 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.33 | 15 | 20:44 |
| 2021-22 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 1.14 | 25 | 22:37 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29 | @ PHIPO | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22:17 |
| Apr 27 | vs PHIPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:37 |
| Apr 25 | @ PHIPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 19:19 |
| Apr 22 | @ PHIPO | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 20:25 |
| Apr 20 | vs PHIPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:48 |
| Apr 18 | vs PHIPO | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:55 |
| Apr 12 | @ WSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20:21 |
| Apr 9 | @ NJD | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 |
| Apr 5 | vs FLA | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 18:50 |
| Apr 4 | vs FLA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 27.3 | 29 | plus 1.7 goals above expected | 72 | 298 |
| 2024-25 | 25.7 | 31 | plus 5.3 goals above expected | 70 | 282 |
| 2023-24 | 26.3 | 28 | plus 1.7 goals above expected | 61 | 286 |
| 2022-23 | 27.8 | 20 | minus 7.8 goals above expected | 80 | 301 |
| 2021-22 | 25.4 | 24 | minus 1.4 goals above expected | 59 | 252 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 20 goals, 19 assists, 39 points | 8 goals, 16 assists, 24 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 26 goals, 21 assists, 47 points | 5 goals, 13 assists, 18 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 24 goals, 22 assists, 46 points | 3 goals, 6 assists, 9 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 18 goals, 16 assists, 34 points | 2 goals, 9 assists, 11 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 15 goals, 22 assists, 37 points | 9 goals, 12 assists, 21 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
298 attempts · 29 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.