Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 152 game sample- PTS
- 102.1
- SOG
- 282.6
- G
- 40.1
- A
- 62.0
- PPP
- 30.6
- HIT
- 50.5
- BLK
- 55.8
- PIM
- 40.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 152 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 152 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 152 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 1.25
- G
- 0.49
- A
- 0.76
- SOG
- 3.46
- PPP
- 0.38
- HIT
- 0.61
- BLK
- 0.68
- PIM
- 0.50
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 45 | 70 | 115 | 1.40 | 287 | 21:19 |
| 2024-25 | 70 | 25 | 38 | 63 | 0.90 | 236 | 19:47 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ WPG | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:41 |
| Apr 15 | @ CHI | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:54 |
| Apr 13 | @ NSH | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:34 |
| Apr 11 | vs VAN | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 22:14 |
| Apr 9 | @ ANA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 22:14 |
| Apr 8 | vs EDM | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 21:48 |
| Apr 6 | vs CHI | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 22:05 |
| Apr 4 | vs NSH | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:40 |
| Apr 2 | vs TOR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:06 |
| Apr 1 | vs ANA | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 24:03 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 34.9 | 45 | plus 10.1 goals above expected | 82 | 411 |
| 2024-25 | 24.9 | 25 | plus 0.1 goals above expected | 70 | 353 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 37 goals, 45 assists, 82 points | 8 goals, 25 assists, 33 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 17 goals, 24 assists, 41 points | 8 goals, 14 assists, 22 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
411 attempts · 45 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.